000 AXNT20 KNHC 071002 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Nov 7 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Eta is centered near 18.3N 84.9W at 07/0900 UTC or 220 nm WSW of Grand Cayman moving ENE at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted within 120 nm E and 30 nm W semicircles of Eta. Eta is forecast to intensify to tropical storm strength today while moving on a ENE track. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details. Heavy rainfall is diminishing across portions of Central America, although the threat of life-threatening flooding may continue, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across the Cayman Islands and portions of Cuba, resulting in significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding in Cuba. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the Bahamas and southern Florida. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 53W from 17N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 12N within 60 nm E of the wave axis. The axis of a tropical wave is near 66W, from 15N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. No significant deep convection is noted. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 10N14W to 07N19W. The ITCZ continues from 07N19W to 07N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N E of 17W, from 03N to 07N between 17W and 29W, and from 03N to 11N between 30W and 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong winds prevail over the eastern Gulf, supported by the pressure gradient between high pressure over the eastern United States, and Tropical Depression Eta in the western Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the remainder of the Gulf waters. Tropical Depression Eta near 18.3N 84.9W 1002 mb at 4 AM EST moving ENE at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Eta will strengthen to a tropical storm near 19.3N 82.9W this afternoon, move to 20.7N 80.9W Sun morning, inland to 22.6N 80.2W Sun afternoon, 23.8N 80.2W Mon morning, 24.9N 81.2W Mon afternoon, and 25.5N 83.7W Tue morning. Eta will change little in intensity as it moves to near 26.0N 84.7W early Wed. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the SE Gulf, including the Straits of Florida, on Sun. The tropical storm conditions will spread northward across the eastern Gulf through Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see above for more information on Tropical Depression Eta. Outside of Eta, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Tropical Depression Eta near 18.3N 84.9W 1002 mb at 4 AM EST moving ENE at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Eta will strengthen to a tropical storm near 19.3N 82.9W this afternoon, move to 20.7N 80.9W Sun morning, inland to 22.6N 80.2W Sun afternoon, 23.8N 80.2W Mon morning, 24.9N 81.2W Mon afternoon, and 25.5N 83.7W Tue morning. Eta will change little in intensity as it moves to near 26.0N 84.7W early Wed. The center of Eta will approach the Cayman Islands today, and be near central or western Cuba tonight and Sunday. The system will move north of the area late Sun, with marine conditions starting to improve into early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... One surface trough is along 60W, from 22N to 29N. A second surface trough is about 420 nm to the east of the first surface trough. A third surface trough is about 500 nm to the ESE of the second surface trough. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 20N northward between 42W and 62W in association to these troughs. Fresh to strong winds prevail W of 70W due to the pressure gradient between high pressure extending off the eastern United States and Tropical Depression Eta. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Tropical Depression Eta near 18.3N 84.9W 1002 mb at 4 AM EST moving ENE at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Eta will strengthen to a tropical storm near 19.3N 82.9W this afternoon, move to 20.7N 80.9W Sun morning, inland to 22.6N 80.2W Sun afternoon, 23.8N 80.2W Mon morning, 24.9N 81.2W Mon afternoon, and 25.5N 83.7W Tue morning. Eta will change little in intensity as it moves to near 26.0N 84.7W early Wed. Tropical storm conditions are expected between Cuba and the Bahamas tonight through Mon. Large seas are expected in the western Atlantic through Tue. $$ AL