000 AXNT20 KNHC 062334 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Nov 6 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2240 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Eta is centered just north of the Gulf of Honduras near 17.3N 86.5W at 2100 UTC, moving NE at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 17N to 19N between 82W and 87W. Eta is forecast to continue moving NE and gradually intensify, and will approach the Cayman Islands Sat and central Cuba Sat night through Sun as a tropical storm. Eta is then expected to lift northward across Cuba and into the Straits of Florida Sun night and then approach The Florida Keys and South Florida late Sun. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details. Through Monday morning, heavy rainfall potential will persist across Central America and the Caribbean coasts, associated with Eta, and may lead to to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding and storm surge damage is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Cayman Islands and western through central Cuba. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 50W from 02N-17N, moving westward 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and moderate thunderstorms are noted from 08.5N to 11N between 48W and 55W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 63W-64W, from 15N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 kt. A small cluster of moderate thunderstorms are sen across the east central Caribbean along 63W behind the wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 14N17W to 11N24W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 06N46W. Scattered moderate convection was noted along the ITCZ between 30W-46W. GULF OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong winds prevail across the waters S of a line from Central Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. A surface trough is analyzed from 28N96W to 23N96W. Tropical Depression Eta will strengthen to a tropical storm near 18.6N 85.7W this evening, move to 19.7N 83.5W Sat morning, 21.0N 81.4W Sat evening, inland to 22.7N 79.9W Sun morning, 24.1N 80.0W Sun evening, and 25.0N 81.2W Mon morning. Eta will change little in intensity as it moves to near 25.5N 84.0W early Tue. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the SE Gulf, including the Straits of Florida, Sun through Tue, spreading northward across the eastern Gulf Sun night through Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the sections above for more information Tropical Depression Eta and the tropical wave currently over the eastern Caribbean. Outside of Eta, a broad area of strong E to SW winds prevail east of Eta to 79W, where seas are 7 to 10 ft. A broad band of scattered moderate to strong convection extends from just west of Jamaica southeastward to coastal Colombia. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh tradewinds prevail across the central and eastern Caribbean. Winds area expected to freshen in the vicinity of Jamaica and the Windward Passage Sat in advance of the approaching Eta, with winds becoming strong by evening there. Look for quickly deteriorating marine conditions south of Cuba Sat through Sat night ahead of Eta. The tropical wave across the eastern Caribbean will move west and gradually become absorbed in the broadening circulation of Eta Sun through Mon, and spread moisture and weather across the Greater Antilles. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A dissipating shearline extends from near 27N64W SW through the central Bahamas and to western Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm of the shearline. To the east, a surface trough extends from 30N57W to 21N56W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 300 nm east of the trough. Fresh to locally strong winds prevail over the waters N of the old shearline, roughly 21N and W of 65W, while moderate to fresh winds prevailing elsewhere. Tropical Depression Eta will strengthen to a tropical storm over the northwest Caribbean and move northward across central Cuba early Sun, over the Straits of Florida Sun afternoon and evening and then begin to veer NW towards the east Gulf of Mexico Sun night through Mon. Tropical storm conditions are possible between Cuba and the Bahamas Sat night through Mon. Large seas are expected in the western Atlantic Sat through Tue and the wind field of Eta greatly expands producing near tropical storm force winds across the northern Bahamas and Florida coastal waters possibly as far north as Palm Beach. $$ Stripling