000 AXNT20 KNHC 061732 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Nov 6 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Eta is centered near 17.8N 87.0W at 06/1500 UTC, moving NNE at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate to strong within 120 nm NE and 240 nm SW semicircles. Eta is forecast to intensify and approach the Cayman Islands and western/central Cuba this weekend. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details. Through Monday morning, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 49W from 02N-17N, moving westward 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave's axis mainly south of 05N. The axis of a tropical wave is near 63W, from 15N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 kt. There is no significant convection with this wave at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 14N17W to 11N24W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 06N46W. Scattered moderate convection was noted along the ITCZ between 30W-46W. GULF OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong winds prevail across the waters S of a line from Central Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. A surface trough is analyzed from 28N96W to 23N96W. Tropical Depression Eta will strengthen to a tropical storm near 18.6N 85.7W this evening, move to 19.7N 83.5W Sat morning, 21.0N 81.4W Sat evening, inland to 22.7N 79.9W Sun morning, 24.1N 80.0W Sun evening, and 25.0N 81.2W Mon morning. Eta will change little in intensity as it moves to near 25.5N 84.0W early Tue. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the SE Gulf, including the Straits of Florida, Sun through Tue, spreading northward across the eastern Gulf Sun night through Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the sections above for more information Tropical Depression Eta and the tropical wave currently over the eastern Caribbean. Outside of Eta, moderate to fresh winds prevail across the central and eastern Caribbean. Tropical Depression Eta will strengthen to a tropical storm near 18.6N 85.7W this evening, move to 19.7N 83.5W Sat morning, 21.0N 81.4W Sat evening, inland to 22.7N 79.9W Sun morning, 24.1N 80.0W Sun evening. Eta will shift north of the area Sun and Sun night, with conditions improving through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin. A shearline extends from near 24N68W NW to western Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm of the shearline. To the east, a surface trough extends from 31N54W to 21N52W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 300 nm east of the trough. Fresh to locally strong winds prevail over the waters N of 21N and W of 65W, while moderate to fresh winds prevailing elsewhere. Tropical Depression Eta will strengthen to a tropical storm over the northwest Caribbean and move northward towards the east Gulf of Mexico. Tropical storm conditions are possible between Cuba and the Bahamas Sat night through Mon. Large seas are expected in the western Atlantic Sat through Tue. $$ ERA