000 AXNT20 KNHC 061006 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Nov 6 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Eta is centered near 17.3N 87.4W at 06/0900 UTC or 100 nm NNW of La Ceiba Honduras moving N at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate to strong within 120 nm NE and 60 nm SW semicircles. Eta is forecast to intensify and approach the Cayman Islands and western or central Cuba this weekend. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details. Through Monday morning, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 46W/47W from 16N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 07N within 120 nm E of the wave axis. The axis of a tropical wave is near 61W, from 15N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. There is no significant convection with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends from 13N22W to 04N45W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 04N to 08N between 32W and 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong winds prevail across the waters S of a line from Central Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. Tropical Depression Eta near 17.3N 87.4W 1004 mb at 4 AM EST moving N at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Eta will strengthen to a tropical storm near 18.0N 86.6W this afternoon, move to 19.1N 84.5W Sat morning, 20.2N 82.2W Sat afternoon, 21.8N 80.3W Sun morning, 23.5N 79.9W Sun afternoon, and 24.6N 80.7W Mon morning. Eta will change little in intensity as it moves to near 25.1N 83.7W early Tue. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the SE Gulf, including the Straits of Florida, Sun night, spreading northward across the eastern Gulf through Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see above for more on Tropical Depression Eta. Outside of Eta, moderate to fresh winds prevail across the central and eastern Caribbean. Tropical Depression Eta near 17.3N 87.4W 1004 mb at 4 AM EST moving N at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Eta will strengthen to a tropical storm near 18.0N 86.6W this afternoon, move to 19.1N 84.5W Sat morning, 20.2N 82.2W Sat afternoon. Eta will shift north of the area Sun and Sun night, with conditions improving through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A shear line extends from near 28N55W SW to western Cuba. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm of the shearline. A surface trough extends from 31N50W to 25N53W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 60 nm of the trough. Fresh to locally strong winds prevail over the waters N of 21N and W of 65W, with moderate to fresh winds prevailing elsewhere. Tropical Depression Eta near 17.3N 87.4W 1004 mb at 4 AM EST moving N at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Eta will strengthen to a tropical storm near 18.0N 86.6W this afternoon, move to 19.1N 84.5W Sat morning, 20.2N 82.2W Sat afternoon, 21.8N 80.3W Sun morning, 23.5N 79.9W Sun afternoon, and 24.6N 80.7W Mon morning. Eta will change little in intensity as it moves to near 25.1N 83.7W early Tue. Tropical storm conditions are possible between Cuba and the Bahamas Sat night through Mon. Large seas are expected in the western Atlantic Sat through Tue. $$ AL