000 AXNT20 KNHC 060600 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Nov 06 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Depression ETA, at 06/0600 UTC, is near 17.0N 87.6W. This position is also about 87 nm/160 km to the NNW of La Ceiba in Honduras, and 390 nm/725 km to the WSW of Grand Cayman. ETA is moving toward the N, or 360 degrees, 7 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. Precipitation: precipitation, in general, covers the area from 72W westward. Scattered to numerous strong is in clusters: in the northernmost sections of Colombia in La Peninsula de la Guajira; within 420 nm to the NW of the northern parts of Colombia; from 12N to 20N between 80W and 85W in the coastal waters of Central America; within 270 nm to the NNE of the center of ETA; and in the easternmost parts of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Widely scattered moderate to strong is elsewhere in Central America from Costa Rica northward. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for more details. ETA is forecast to strengthen, and to move northeastward on Friday. ETA still is causing heavy rains and life-threatening flooding in sections of Central America. This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, and landslides, in areas of higher terrain of Central America. Significant, life-threatening flooding, flash floods and river flooding, is possible in the Cayman Islands and Cuba. Flash flooding and river flooding are expected for Jamaica and southeast Mexico. The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue warnings about heavy rain and flooding in their countries. Anybody who has interests in those countries should continue to monitor the situation about T.D. ETA. Anybody who has interests in Cuba, in the NW Bahamas, in the Florida Keys, and in the southern part of Florida: please, monitor the progress of T.D. ETA. It is possible that it may be necessary to issue tropical storm watches on Friday, for some of those areas. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 46W/47W from 16N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 250 nm to 300 nm on either side of the tropical wave, from 13N southward. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 60W, from 15N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 270 nm to the east of the tropical wave, from 13N southward. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is inland in Africa. The ITCZ is along 13N23W, 07N30W, 04N45W, and from 07N48W to 06N55W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong, in small clusters, are from 14N southward, from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge passes through Louisiana, TO 22N98W in coastal Mexico. Rainshowers are possible, to the south and southeast of the line that runs from the south central coastal Louisiana to 22N98W along the coast of Mexico. Any possible precipitation that is most probably related to Tropical Depression ETA. A shear line passes through the Bahamas just to the south of Andros Island, to NW Cuba, to the Yucatan Peninsula. Tropical Depression Eta near 16.6N 87.8W 1004 mb at 10 PM EST moving N at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Eta will strengthen to a tropical storm near 17.5N 87.2W Fri morning, move to 18.8N 85.4W Fri evening, 19.7N 83.2W Sat morning, 20.8N 81.0W Sat evening, inland to 22.6N 79.8W Sun morning, and 24.2N 80.4W Sun evening. Eta will change little in intensity as it moves to near 25.0N 83.0W late Mon. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the SE Gulf of Mexico, including in the Straits of Florida, from Sunday night through Tuesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... The center of Tropical Depression ETA, at 06/0600 UTC, is near 17.0N 87.6W. This position is also about 87 nm/160 km to the NNW of La Ceiba in Honduras, and 390 nm/725 km to the WSW of Grand Cayman. ETA is moving toward the N, or 360 degrees, 7 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. Precipitation: precipitation, in general, covers the area from 72W westward. Scattered to numerous strong is in clusters: in the northernmost sections of Colombia in La Peninsula de la Guajira; within 420 nm to the NW of the northern parts of Colombia; from 12N to 20N between 80W and 85W in the coastal waters of Central America; within 270 nm to the NNE of the center of ETA; and in the easternmost parts of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Widely scattered moderate to strong is elsewhere in Central America from Costa Rica northward. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for more details. ETA is forecast to strengthen, and to move northeastward on Friday. ETA still is causing heavy rains and life-threatening flooding in sections of Central America. This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, and landslides, in areas of higher terrain of Central America. Significant, life-threatening flooding, flash floods and river flooding, is possible in the Cayman Islands and Cuba. Flash flooding and river flooding are expected for Jamaica and southeast Mexico. The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue warnings about heavy rain and flooding in their countries. Anybody who has interests in those countries should continue to monitor the situation about T.D. ETA. Anybody who has interests in Cuba, in the NW Bahamas, in the Florida Keys, and in the southern part of Florida: please, monitor the progress of T.D. ETA. It is possible that it may be necessary to issue tropical storm watches on Friday, for some of those areas. Tropical Depression Eta near 16.6N 87.8W 1004 mb at 10 PM EST moving N at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Eta will strengthen to a tropical storm near 17.5N 87.2W Fri morning, move to 18.8N 85.4W Fri evening, 19.7N 83.2W Sat morning, 20.8N 81.0W Sat evening, inland to 22.6N 79.8W Sun morning, and 24.2N 80.4W Sun evening. Eta will change little in intensity as it moves to near 25.0N 83.0W late Mon. The center of Eta will emerge in the Caribbean Sea tonight, and approach the Cayman Islands Sat and Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front passes through 30N/32N between 53W and 73W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and possible rainshowers, are from 30N to 32N between 53W and the coast of the U.S.A. A shear line is along 28N56W 24N70W, to the southern part of Andros Island in the Bahamas, beyond NW Cuba. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is from 20N to 30N from 56W westward. A north-to-south surface trough is along 32N49W 24N51W. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and isolated to locally strong is from 20N to 32N between 45W and 56W. Tropical Depression Eta near 16.6N 87.8W 1004 mb at 10 PM EST moving N at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Eta will strengthen to a tropical storm near 17.5N 87.2W Fri morning, move to 18.8N 85.4W Fri evening, 19.7N 83.2W Sat morning, 20.8N 81.0W Sat evening, inland to 22.6N 79.8W Sun morning, and 24.2N 80.4W Sun evening. Eta will change little in intensity as it moves to near 25.0N 83.0W late Mon. The center of Eta will emerge in the Caribbean Sea tonight and approach the Cayman Islands Sat and Sat night. Tropical storm conditions are possible between Cuba and the Bahamas from Sat night through Mon. Large seas are expected in the western Atlantic Ocean from Saturday through Tuesday. $$ mt