000 AXNT20 KNHC 040557 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Nov 4 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Eta is near 13.8N 84.0W at 04/0300 UTC, or about 39 nm WSW of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua, moving W at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Numerous strong convection is within 60 nm of the center. More numerous strong convection is E of the center over the Caribbean from 13N-18N between 78W-81W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 10N-22N between 77W-89W. A faster west-northwestward motion is expected through early Thursday. A turn toward the north, and then north-northeast is forecast Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to move farther inland over northern Nicaragua through Wednesday morning, and then move across the central portions of Honduras through Thursday morning. The system is forecast to emerge over the northwestern Caribbean Sea Thursday night or Friday. Rapid weakening will occur over the next couple of days as the center of Eta moves farther inland over Nicaragua and Honduras. Rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river flooding will be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands. Please refer to the NHC Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for details on the marine hazards associated with Eta. Caribbean Gale Warning: Strong high pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico is combining with lower pressure over the western Caribbean associated with Hurricane Eta and is leading to near gale force winds over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The gradient will tighten just enough to allow for these winds to reach gale force on Wed over the Gulf of Honduras. The gradient will slacken just enough by late Wed allowing for these winds to diminish to strong speeds. Seas will be at maximum value of 12 ft at that time. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 35W from 01N-15N, moving W at 10 kt. This wave is located to the southeast of a rather potent upper-level trough. This pattern is favorable for the enhancement of convection near the wave. Satellite imagery shows a large area of scattered moderate isolated strong convection E of the axis from 05N-11N between 26W-34W. A tropical wave axis is along 53W from 01N-12N, moving W at 10 kt. Isolated showers are within 90 nm of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends off the west coast of Africa near 12N16W to 10N20W. The ITCZ is from 10N20W to 07N34W, then continues west of a tropical wave from 06N37W to 02N51W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from a 1027 mb high pressure over Alabama and Georgia southwest across SE Texas and then southward to southern Mexico. The pressure gradient between Hurricane Eta and the high pressure is currently causing near gale force NE winds across the southeast Gulf of Mexico. This includes the Florida Straits and the Yucatan Channel, where an ASCAT pass suggested that NE winds were in the 28 to 33 kt range. Winds are only moderate over the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Strong N winds are in the Bay of Campeche south of 20N. Little to no significant precipitation is noted, although scattered stratus clouds are seen in the southern half of the Gulf. Fresh to near gale force NE winds will continue over the SE Gulf and the Bay of Campeche, with near gale force NE winds over the Straits of Florida. Winds will remain moderate to fresh over the NE Gulf waters by the end of the week and into the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Eta and for details on upcoming gale force winds over the Gulf of Honduras. Convection in the western Caribbean west of 73W is due to Hurricane Eta and its interaction with an old lingering frontal zone. Clusters of scattered moderate to strong convection are over E Cuba and Hispaniola. An ASCAT pass showed moderate to fresh trades across the eastern and central Caribbean, east of 75W. Near gales extend northwestward from Eta's tropical storm force wind field, all the way through the Yucatan Channel into the SE Gulf. The entire area north of 18N and west of 80W is experiencing NE winds of 25 to 33 kt. ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 04/0300 UTC, a stationary front extends from near 31N55W to 26N65W through the central Bahamas near 24N75W to central Cuba near 22.5N80W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the front. Near gale force winds are north of the front west of 74W, and extend from the Florida Straits through the central and northwest Bahamas to near 25N74W. Fresh to strong winds are elsewhere behind the front, except for moderate anticyclonic winds seen north of 29N and west of 70W. Farther east, a potent upper-level trough stretches across the central Atlantic, generally from 15N-30N between 35W-50W. This upper trough is enhancing scattered convection aloft that extends N from the tropical wave along 35W to 30N, between 28W-35W. The stationary front over the western Atlantic will remain over the region tonight into Wed before gradually dissipating Wed night. Strong to near gale force NE to E winds behind the front will continue through Thu night, then become east mainly fresh winds Fri and increase to fresh to strong Sat and Sun. Rough seas will continue over the majority of the area through Thu, then begin to slowly subside through late Fri. Seas build again over the waters north and northeast of the Bahamas Sat and Sun. $$ Formosa