884 AXNT20 KNHC 031816 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Nov 3 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1750 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Major Hurricane Eta is centered near 13.7N 83.3W at 03/1800 UTC, or about 15 nm SSE of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua moving W at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 120 kt with gusts to 145 kt. Numerous strong convection is within 75 nm of the center, including over northeastern Nicaragua. Scattered moderate to strong convection is elsewhere within 480 nm of the center in the NE quad, 180 nm SE quad, 150 nm SW quad and 270 nm NW quad, including portions of Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, Nicaragua and Honduras. The eye has become less distinct on infrared satellite imagery since about 0900 UTC this morning and is obscured by clouds. Cloud tops in the eye wall and core region have also warmed since that time. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to make landfall along the coast of Nicaragua within the Hurricane Warning area today. Eta will move farther inland over northern Nicaragua through Wed morning, and then move across the central portions of Honduras Thu morning. Weakening will begin after Eta moves inland today. Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's eyewall moves onshore within the next few hours. Through Sunday morning, extremely heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain across much of Nicaragua and Honduras, Costa Rica, western Panama, eastern Guatemala and Belize. Flash flooding and river flooding are possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands. In addition, an extremely dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 14 to 21 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Nicaragua today, near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. For more information on the heavy rainfall associated with Eta and other hazards, please refer to the NHC Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for details on the marine hazards associated with Eta. Caribbean Gale Warning: Strong high pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico is combining with lower pressure over the western Caribbean associated with Hurricane Eta and is leading to near gale force winds over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The gradient will tighten just enough to allow for these winds to reach gale force on Wed over the Gulf of Honduras. The gradient will slacken just enough by late Wed allowing for these winds to diminish to strong speeds. Seas will be at maximum value of 12 ft at that time. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 34W from 01N-15N, moving W at 10 kt. This wave is located to the southeast of a rather potent upper-level trough. This pattern is favorable for the enhancement of convection near the wave. Satellite imagery shows a large area of numerous moderate and isolated strong convection from 05N-12N between 29W-39W. Isolated moderate convection is elsewhere from 04N-13N between 27W-40W. A tropical wave axis is along 51W from 01N-12N, moving W at 10 kt. Isolated showers are near the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends off the west coast of Africa near 12N16W to 10N18W. The ITCZ is from 10N18W to 06N32W, then continues west of a tropical wave from 06N36W to 03N46W. Aside from convection related to the tropical wave along 34W, isolated moderate convection is within 60 nm south and 300 nm north of the ITCZ between 40W-46W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from a 1030 mb high pressure over Alabama and Mississippi to a 1027 mb high over northeast Mexico near 23N100W. Meanwhile, Hurricane Eta is located near Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua. The gradient in between the hurricane and the high pressure is currently causing near gale force NE winds across the southeast Gulf of Mexico. This includes the Florida Straits and the Yucatan Channel, where a recent ASCAT pass suggests that NE winds are in the 28 to 33 kt range. Winds are only moderate speeds over the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Strong N winds are in the Bay of Campeche south of 20N. Little to no significant precipitation is noted, although scattered stratus clouds are seen in the southern half of the Gulf. Fresh to near gale force NE winds will continue over the SE Gulf and the Bay of Campeche, with near gale force NE winds over the Straits of Florida. Winds will remain moderate to fresh over the NE Gulf waters by the end of the week and into the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Eta and for details on upcoming gale force winds over the Gulf of Honduras. Convection in the western Caribbean west of 74.5W is due to Hurricane Eta and is described above. Another area of scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen over the central Caribbean from 13N-18N between 69W-72W. A stationary front extends from central Cuba near 22.5N80W to the Isle of Youth. A dissipating stationary front continues from the Isle of Youth to 19.5N86.5W. The latest ASCAT pass shows moderate to fresh trades across the eastern and central Caribbean, east of 75W. Near gales extend northwestward from Eta's tropical storm force wind field, all the way through the Yucatan Channel into the SE Gulf. The entire area north of 18N and west of 80W is experiencing NE winds of 25 to 33 kt. Hurricane Eta is forecast to weaken to a remnant low over Honduras Thu morning. Eta could potentially regenerate into a tropical cyclone over the northwest Caribbean this weekend. Scattered to numerous showers and tstorms will continue to cover most of the western and central Caribbean through the end of the week. Strong to near gale force northeast winds will remain over the NE Caribbean through early Thu. These winds are forecast to be gale force in the Gulf of Honduras on Wed. See the Special Features section above for more information on this Gale Warning. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from near 32N58.5W to 24.5N70W to Long Island, Bahamas near 23N75W. A stationary front continues to central Cuba near 22.5N80W. Near gale force winds are north of the front west of 74W, and extend from the Florida Straits through the central and northwest Bahamas to near 25N74W. Fresh to strong winds are elsewhere behind the front, except for moderate anticyclonic winds seen north of 29N and west of 70W. Scattered to numerous showers and tstorms are noted along and well southeast and south of the front, stretching almost to Puerto Rico and the north coast of Hispaniola, from 20N-26N between 65W-78W. East of 65W, scattered moderate showers are noted along and within 150 nm ahead of the front. This activity is being enhanced by a broad upper-level trough over the NW Atlantic to the north of the area, and an upper-level dynamics tied to a jet stream branch that rounds the base of the trough. Strong upper-level west winds are being produced by this jet stream branch. Farther east, an potent upper-level trough stretches across the central Atlantic, generally from 15N-30N between 35W-50W. This upper trough is enhancing scattered moderate convection that extends N from the tropical wave along 34W to 30N, between 29W-39W. For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front from 27N65W to the central Bahamas will stall tonight before gradually dissipating through Wed night. Strong to near gale force northeast to east winds behind the front will continue through Thu night over the Bahamas region and Florida Straits, then become mainly fresh east winds Fri before increasing again to fresh to strong speeds Sat and Sat night. Rough seas will continue over the majority of the area through Thu, then begin to slowly subside through late Fri. Seas should build again over the waters north and northeast of the Bahamas Sat and Sat night. $$ Hagen