596 AXNT20 KNHC 031203 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Nov 03 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Major Hurricane Eta is centered near 13.8N 83.1W AT 03/0900 UTC, or about 20 nm SE of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua moving WSW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure has lowered to 923 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 130 kt with gusts to 160 kt. Satellite imagery shows that ETA has a distinct 10 nm diameter eye embedded within very cold cloud tops. The observed very deep convection consists of the numerous strong type within 30 nm of the eye, except 90 nm in the NE quadrant. Numerous moderate to strong convection well to the northeast and east of ETA from 14N to 18N between 76W-79W and also from 12N to 14N between 79W-81W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere within 120 nm of ETA in the southern semicircle and within 30 nm of an outer rain band that extends from 15N85W to 17N84W and to 19N82W. Scattered moderate convection within 30 nm of line from 18N84W to 20N81W and to 20N79W depicts an outer fractured rain band. ETA will maintain its current motion through this morning, then a westward or west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin by this afternoon and continue through Thu. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to make landfall along the coast of Nicaragua within the Hurricane Warning area in a few hours. The center of Eta is forecast to move farther inland over northern Nicaragua through Wednesday morning, and then move across central portions of Honduras by Thu morning. Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's eyewall moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area within the next few hours, with tropical storm conditions already occurring in this area. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area this morning, and hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area early today. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area later today. Eta is expected to produce between 15 to 25 inches of rain over much of Nicaragua and Honduras. This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river flooding will be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands. A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 14 to 21 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. In addition, swell generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next few days. For more information on the marine hazards associated with Eta, please refer to the High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml. Also, please refer to the NHC Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Atlantic Gale Warning: Strong high pressure building southeastward over the western Atlantic from the southeastern U.S. will continue to bring northeast to east winds with frequent gusts to gale force west of 78W and south of 27N for a few more hours, with resultant seas to 12 ft. Similar winds also with frequent gusts to gale force will continue over the Straits of Florida through late tonight, with peak seas to 14 ft. These conditions will slowly subside through the end of the week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details and your local NWS office at wwww.weather.gov for details on the coastal waters forecasts. Caribbean Gale Warning: Strong pressure over the Gulf of Mexico is combining with lower pressure over the western Caribbean associated to Hurricane ETA and is leading to strong to near gale force winds to occur over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The gradient will tighten just enough to allow for these winds to reach gale force intensity on Wed over the waters between Belize and the northwest part of the Gulf of Honduras. The gradient will slacken just enough by late Wednesday allowing for these winds diminish to strong speeds, however. seas will be at maximum value of 12 ft at that time. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 33W/34W from 01N to 15N. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. This wave is located to the southeast of a rather potent upper-level trough. This pattern is very favorable for the enhancement of convection near the wave as well as in the development of new convection. Satellite imagery shows a large area of numerous moderate to strong convection from 05N to 12N between 30W-40W. A tropical wave has its axis along 51W from 01N to 12N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are seen within 60 nm either side of the wave axis from 02N to 09N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from 11N15W to 09N17W. Latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ near 08N18W and continues to 06N31W where it briefly ends. It resumes west of a tropical wave near 06N34W to 06N43W to 02N48W. Aside from convection related to the tropical wave along 33W/34W, scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south and north of the ITCZ between 40W-44W. GULF OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning for the Straits of Florida. Strong high pressure continues to build across the basin as the cold front that moved across the area presently stretches from west-central Cuba southwest into the northwestern Caribbean Sea to just northeast of Belize. The tight gradient between it and the high pressure and lower pressure over the western Caribbean Sea from Hurricane ETA supports fresh to strong northeast to east winds over the central and eastern Gulf waters, except for near gale force winds in the Bay of Campeche as were noted in an overnight Ascat pass. Seas are in the 7-11 ft range, with the exception of the slighter higher seas in and near the Straits of Florida and lower seas of 5-6 ft in the far NW Gulf. Isolated showers are over the far southeastern waters of the Gulf to near the coast western Cuba. The cold front will move farther away from the Gulf today. The tight gradient in place will be slow in relaxing through the end of the week at which time moderate to fresh east winds are expected over the eastern Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Eta and for details on upcoming gale force winds over a section of the northwestern Caribbean. Outside of Hurricane Eta, the majority of the Caribbean is being impacted by numerous showers and thunderstorms, mainly west of about 67W. Some of this activity may at times contain strong gusty winds and frequent lightning. Expect for this activity to change little through the end of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The cold front of the recent days now extends from near 28N65W to the central Bahamas and to northwestern Cuba. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are noted southeast and south of the front between 65W-79W. This activity is being enhanced and sustained by a broad upper-level trough that is located over the western Atlantic and an upper-level dynamics tied to a jet stream branch that rounds the base of the trough. Strong upper- level west winds are being produced by this jet stream branch. The tight gradient between the cold front and strong high pressure building east-southeastward over the western Atlantic in its wake is resulting in strong to near gale-force northeast to east over the western Atlantic waters, with winds reaching frequent gusts to gale force south of 27N and west of 78W, including the Straits of Florida. Otherwise, high pressure extends across the basin with moderate to fresh winds in the central Atlantic. As for the forecast, the cold front will stall from near 27N65W to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba tonight before gradually dissipating through Wed night. Northeast winds with frequent gusts to gale force south of 27N and west of 78W will diminish to strong speeds this morning. Otherwise, strong to near gale force northeast to east winds behind the front will continue through Thu night, then become east mainly fresh winds Fri and increase to fresh to strong speeds Sat and Sat night. Rough seas will continue over the majority of the area through Thu, then begin to slowly subside through late Fri. Seas build again over the waters north and northeast of the Bahamas Sat and Sat night $$ Aguirre