000 AXNT20 KNHC 030503 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Nov 03 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Major Hurricane Eta is centered near 14.1N 82.7W AT 03/0300 UTC, or about 60 nm SSE of Cabo Gracias a Dios on Nicaragua/Honduras border, moving WSW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 927 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 130 kt with gusts to 160 kt. Numerous strong convection is within 90 nm of the center. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 11N-20N between 74W-88W. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to make landfall along the coast of Nicaragua within the Hurricane Warning area early Tuesday. The center of Eta is forecast to move farther inland over northern Nicaragua through Wednesday night, and then move across central portions of Honduras on Thursday. Eta is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 12 hours, and Eta could become a category 5 hurricane before it makes landfall. Weakening will begin after the cyclone moves inland. Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's eyewall moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area beginning tonight, with tropical storm conditions beginning within the next few hours. Rainfall can lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river flooding is possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands. A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 14 to 21 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. For more information on the marine hazards associated with Eta, please refer to the High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml. Also, please refer to the NHC Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Atlantic Gale Warning: Strong high pressure building southeastward over Florida and the western Atlantic will produce strong northeast to east winds with frequent gusts to gale force west of 78W through 04/0000 UTC. Seas will build to 13 ft off the coast of Florida. Strong to near gale force winds are expected to continue over the southeastern Gulf Tue through Thu due to the pressure gradient between Hurricane Eta in the western Caribbean and the aforementioned strong high pressure. Strong to near gale force winds will also develop over the Straits of Florida with frequent gusts by tonight through 04/0000 UTC. Seas will build through 16 ft through Wed evening. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details and your local NWS office at wwww.weather.gov for details on the coastal waters forecasts. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 33W from 01N to 15N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 05N- 11N between 30W-40W. A tropical wave has its axis along 50W from 01N to 11N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N-12N between 45W-52W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from 11N15W to 09N17W. Latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ near 08N18W and continues to 06N31W where it biefly ends. It resumes west of a tropical wave near 06N34W to 06N43W to 02N48W. GULF OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section for information on a gale warning over the Straits of Florida. Strong high pressure continues to build across the basin and supports fresh to strong winds over the entire gulf, except for near gale force winds in the Bay of Campeche. Seas are in the 8 to 10 ft range. Strong to near gale force winds are expected over the southeastern Gulf waters tonight through Wed due to the combination between the strong high pressure and Hurricane Eta in the western Caribbean. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Eta. Outside Eta, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to cover a good portion of the western and central Caribbean through the end of the week while strong to near gale northeast winds remain over the northwestern Caribbean through early Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A strong cold front is sweeping across the western Atlantic. The front extends from 31N64W to the northern Bahamas to the Straits of Florida near 23N80W. Strong to near gale-force NNW winds are across the western Atlantic behind the front off the Florida coast. Otherwise, high pressure extends across the basin with moderate to fresh winds in the central Atlantic. The cold front will stall from near 27N65W to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba Tue night before gradually dissipating through Wed night. Northeast winds with frequent gusts to gale force are expected west of 78W through early Tue. Otherwise, Strong to near gale force north to northwest winds and building seas are expected behind the front and affect both the Bahamas and the Straits of Florida through Thu as strong high pressure builds across the region in the wake of the front. $$ Formosa