000 AXNT20 KNHC 021741 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Nov 2 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1710 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Eta is centered near 14.8N 81.5W AT 02/1500 UTC, or about 100 nm E of Cabo Gracias a Dios on Nicaragua/Honduras border and 120 nm ENE of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua, moving W at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt. Numerous strong convection is within 100 nm of the center in all quadrants with scattered moderate convection noted from 11N-19B between 76W-85W. Peak seas are currently 28 ft with 12 ft seas extending 50 nm in the S semicircle, 120 nm in the NE quadrant and 90 nm in the NW quadrant. Etais expected to slow down by this afternoon and will continue into Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to approach the northeastern coast of Nicaragua later today, and make landfall within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua on Tuesday. The center of Eta is forecast to move farther inland over northern Nicaragua through Wednesday night. Continued rapid strengthening is expected through early Tuesday, and Eta is expected to become a major hurricane very soon. Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Etas eyewall moves onshore. Weakening will begin after the system moves inland. For more information on the marine hazards associated with Eta, please refer to the High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml. Through Friday, heavy rainfall from Eta will likely lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, notably NE Nicragua and eastern Honduras, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands. In addition, a potentially catastrophic and life-threatening storm surge, along with battering waves, is expected along portions of the NE coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. For more information on the heavy rainfall associated with Eta and other hazards, please refer to the NHC Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Atlantic Gale Warning: Strong high pressure building southeastward over Florida and the western Atlantic will produce strong northeast to east winds with frequent gusts to gale force west of 78W through 04/0000 UTC. Seas will build to 13 ft off the coast of Florida. Strong to near gale force winds are expected to continue over the southeastern Gulf Tue through Thu due to the pressure gradient between Hurricane Eta in the western Caribbean and the aforementioned strong high pressure. Strong to near gale force winds will also develop over the Straits of Florida with frequent gusts by tonight through 04/0000 UTC. Seas will build through 16 ft through Wed evening. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details and your local NWS office at wwww.weather.gov for details on the coastal waters forecasts. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Strong high pressure building in behind a cold front that extends across the far SE Bay of Campeche will induce strong to near gale force northerly winds across most of the Gulf region through tonight. Northerly winds are expected to reach minimal gale force off Veracruz, Mexico through early Mon evening. Seas are forecast to build to 10-12 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 30W from 11N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 50 nm of the wave. A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 47W from 11N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the wave from 06N-08N between 46W-48W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 10N14W to 08N18W. The ITCZ continues from 08N18W to 06N30W, then continues west of a tropical wave near 05N31W to 05N46W. The ITCZ continues west of another tropical wave near 05N48W to the coast of French Guiana near 02N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ from 02N-11N between 19W-52W. GULF OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section for information on the gale warning in the southern Gulf of Mexico. At 1500 UTC, the cold front extends across the southern Gulf from the Florida Keys near 25N81W to the northern Yucatan near 21N88W. Showers are noted within 50 nm of the front. Otherwise, strong high pressure is building across most of the basin. Fresh to strong NE winds are noted across the central and eastern Gulf with moderate to fresh NE winds in the NW Gulf. Seas are averaging 6-9 ft with upwards of 12 ft in the southern Bay of Campeche and 10 ft north of the Yucatan. The strong cold front will reach the Florida Keys and the northern Yucatan peninsula this morning. Fresh to near gale force northerly winds are expected across the region tonight through Tue night. Northerly winds are expected to reach gale force speeds off Veracruz, Mexico today through early this evening. Strong to near gale force winds are expected to continue over the southeastern Gulf waters Wed and Thu due to the combination between strong high pressure building south over the Gulf and Hurricane Eta in the western Caribbean. Frequent gusts to gale force are expected in the Straits of Florida today and tonight. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Eta. Scattered moderate convection is moving across Hispaniola and the central Caribbean from 13N-19N between 66W-74W. Scattered showers are noted in the Gulf of Honduras and off the coast of the Yucatan. Gentle to moderate trades are in the eastern and central Caribbean with fresh to strong NW winds in the NW Caribbean off the coast of the Yucatan. Seas are averaging 6-9 ft outside of Hurricane Eta. Hurricane Eta will move to near 14.6N 82.0W this afternoon with maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt, to near 14.2N 83.0W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 95 kt gusts 115 kt and inland to near 14.0N 83.7W Tue afternoon with maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts 105 kt. Eta will weaken to a tropical storm near 13.9N 84.5W late Tue night and continue further inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 14.0N 85.7W Wed afternoon. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue well in advance of Eta. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A strong cold front is sweeping across the western Atlantic off the coast of Florida and the Bahamas. The front enters the waters near 31N70W to the South Florida coast near 26N80W. A pre-frontal trough is noted ahead of the front from 30N68W to the Straits of Florida near 23N81W. Showers and thunderstorms are along this trough. Strong to near gale-force NNW winds are noted across the western Atlantic behind the front off the Florida coast. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are ahead of the cold front near 31N. Seas are 7-9 ft. Farther east, a stationary front extends across the central Atlantic near 31N between 41W-49W. Showers are along this front. Otherwise, high pressure extends across the basin with moderate to fresh winds in the central Atlantic. Seas are averaging 7-12 ft. A strong cold front will sweep across the rest of the forecast area through Tue, then stall from near 27N65W to the central Bahamas Tue night before dissipating Wed night. Strong to near gale force north to northwest winds and building seas are expected behind the front and will affect both the Bahamas and the Straits of Florida through Thu as strong high pressure builds across the region in the wake of the front. Northeast winds with frequent gusts to gale force are expected west of 78W today and tonight. $$ AReinhart