000 AXNT20 KNHC 021203 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Nov 2 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Recently upgraded Hurricane Eta is centered near 14.8N 80.9W at 02/0900 UTC or 120 nm E of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Nicaragua/Honduras border or 140 nm east-northeast of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua moving W or 265 degrees at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure has lowered to 974 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed has increased to 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. GOES-16 Satellite imagery shows that Eta now has a clearly visible CDO (central dense overcast) that consists of numerous strong convection within 90 nm of center in the NW quadrant, within 60 nm of the center in the NE and SW quadrants and within 30 nm of the center in the SE quadrant. Many banding features are coiled around the CDO. One of these bands consists of scattered moderate to strong convection within 30 nm either side of a line from 11N80W to 13N78W to 15N77W, also from 13N to 17N between 76W- 79W and from 16N to 18N between 79W-85W. Eta is expected to maintain its current motion through this morning. A slower motion toward the west-southwest is forecast by this afternoon and continuing into Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to approach the northeastern coast of Nicaragua this afternoon, and make landfall within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua by early Tuesday. The center of Eta is forecast to move farther inland over northern Nicaragua through early Wed. Strengthening, possibly rapid, is expected through early Tuesday, and Eta could be a major hurricane when landfall occurs by early Tue. Weakening will begin after the system moves inland. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED by the National Hurricane Center at website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Eta NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Atlantic Gale Warning: Strong high pressure building southeastward over Florida and the western Atlantic will produce strong northeast to east winds with frequent gusts to gale force west of 78W through Wed. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details and your local NWS office at wwww.weather.gov for details on the coastal waters forecasts. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Strong high pressure building in behind a cold front that extends from just south of Fort Myers, Florida to 23N87W and to the eastern Bay of Campeche will induce strong to near gale force northerly winds across most of the Gulf region through tonight. Northerly winds are expected to reach minimal gale force off Veracruz, Mexico through early Mon evening. Seas are forecast to build to 10-11 ft. Strong to near gale force winds are expected to continue over the southeastern Gulf Tue through Thu due to the pressure gradient between Hurricane Eta in the western Caribbean and the aforementioned strong high pressure. A Gale Warning is in effect for the Straits of Florida for frequent gusts to 35 kt through Tue. Seas will be quite high in the Straits of Florida through Wed night as these winds blow against the current flow that is in the Straits. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A low-amplitude tropical wave has its axis along 44W/45W from 01N to 14N. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm either side of the wave from 06N to 09N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal plains of Guinea Bissau near 12N16W and continues to 09N20W, where overnight scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 08N30W and to 05N42W. It resumes west of the wave at 05N46W to 03N50W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate convection is seen from 04N- 0N between 18W-34W. GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for portions of the Gulf of Mexico. Please, see the Special Feature section above for details. Strong autumn high pressure is building across the area in the wake of a cold front that extends from just south of Fort Myers, Florida to 23N87W and to the eastern Bay of Campeche. The front will exit the Gulf this morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Eta. Aside from convection associated to Eta, plenty of deep atmospheric remains in place over the basin. This is leading to numerous showers and thunderstorms over just about the entire sea. Some of this activity, may at times, contain strong gusty winds and frequent lightning. In the eastern Caribbean, fresh to locally strong trades are occurring with seas in the range of 6-8 ft. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A strong cold front has moved into the northwest part of the area. It extends from near 32N75W to Fort Pierce, Florida. A pre- frontal trough extends from near 31N72W to near 27N79W. A solid 60 nm wide line of numerous showers and thunderstorms is racing out ahead of this trough from near 31N68W to 28N73W. It contains frequent lightning. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are noted north within 90 nm southeast of the trough between 75W-79W. Over the far eastern part of the area, the tail-end of a stationary front extends from 32N36W to 31N43W. Strong central Atlantic high pressure center well north of the area is building across this front. The associated broad ridging covers the area north of 24N and east of 64W. The strong cold front will sweep across the rest of the forecast area through Tue, then stall from near 27N65W to the central Bahamas Tue night before dissipating Wed night. Strong to near gale force north to northwest winds and building seas are expected behind the front and will affect both the Bahamas and the Straits of Florida through Thu as strong high pressure builds across the region in the wake of the front. Northeast winds with frequent gusts to gale force are expected west of 78W today and tonight. Expect for rather poor to hazardous marine conditions to continue through late this week. $$ Aguirre