000 AXNT20 KNHC 020528 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Nov 2 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Eta is centered near 14.9N 80.0W at 02/0300 UTC or 186 nm E of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Nicaragua/Honduras border moving W or 270 degrees at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous strong convection is within 9 nm of the center. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 07N-20N between 71W-88W. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to approach the northeastern coast of Nicaragua Monday afternoon, and make landfall within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua Monday night or early Tuesday. The center of Eta is forecast to move farther inland over northern Nicaragua through early Wednesday. Rapid strengthening is forecast to continue during the next 36 hours, and Eta is expected to become a hurricane by early Monday morning. Additional strengthening is likely thereafter, and Eta is expected to be a major hurricane when landfall occurs Monday night or early Tuesday. Catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain ar expected over Central America. In addition, flash flooding and river flooding are possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands. A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED by the National Hurricane Center at website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Eta NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front over S Florida and the SE Gulf of Mexico will quickly reach the Florida Keys and the northern Yucatan peninsula by Mon morning. Strong to near gale force northerly winds are expected across most of the Gulf region tonight through Mon night. Northerly winds are expected to reach minimal gale force off Veracruz, Mexico from late tonight through early Mon evening. Seas are forecast to build to 10-11 ft. Strong to near gale force winds are expected to continue over the southeastern Gulf Tue through Thu due to the pressure gradient between Tropical Cyclone Eta and strong high pressure centered offshore New England. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A low-amplitude tropical wave is along 43W from 13N southward moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N-11N between 35W-48W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea Bissau near 12N16W to 09N19W. The ITCZ continues from 09N19W to 07N30W to 04N42W. The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave near 04N45W and extends to the coast of Brazil near 02N51W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate convection is from 04N-10N between 18W-35W. GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for portions of the Gulf of Mexico. Please, see Special Feature section for details. High pressure is already building over N Mexico and the NW Gulf of Mexico. As of 02/0300 UTC, a cold front extends from central Florida near 28N81W to the south central Gulf of Mexico near 22N90W to the Bay of Campeche near 21N92W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... Attention remains focused on Tropical Storm Eta forecast to strengthen into a hurricane tonight. With this tropical cyclone now in the Caribbean Sea, the all time record of twenty- eight named storms established in 2005 has been tied. In the eastern Caribbean, fresh to locally strong trade winds dominates the area with seas of 6-8 ft. Abundant cloudiness with embedded showers are also noted. ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 02/0300 UTC, a cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N77W to central Florida near 28N81W. A prefrontal trough extends from 31N74W to 27N80W. Scattered showers are N of 27N and W of 74W. Further E, the tail-end of a cold front reaches the central Atlantic near 31N43W. A 1025 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 33N18W. A strong cold front will sweep across the W Atlantic then stall from near 27N65W to the central Bahamas Tue night before dissipating Wed night. Strong to near gale force north to northwest winds and building seas are expected behind the front and will affect both the Bahamas and the Straits of Florida through Thu as strong high pressure builds across the region in the wake of the front. Northeast winds with frequent gusts to gale force are expected south of 27N west of 78W Mon and Mon night. $$ Formosa