000 AXNT20 KNHC 012345 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Nov 1 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Eta is centered near 14.9N 78.9W at 01/2100 UTC or 250 nm E of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Nicaragua/Honduras border moving W or 270 degrees at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 150 nm W semicircle and 120 nm NE quadrant of center. Scattered moderate to strong convection are noted in bands to the E of Eta from 12N-17N between 70W-76W. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to approach the northeastern coast of Nicaragua on Monday, and make landfall within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua Monday night or early Tuesday. Eta is forecast to move inland over northern Nicaragua through early Wednesday. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours, and Eta is expected to become a hurricane tonight, with additional strengthening likely until the hurricane makes landfall Monday night or early Tuesday. A life-threatening storm surge, along with damaging waves, is expected along portions of the northeastern coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Water levels could reach as high as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in some parts of the hurricane warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED by the National Hurricane Center at website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Eta NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Widespread heavy rainfall event from tropical cyclone Eta. Through Friday afternoon, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, Southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands. Eta is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 15-25 inches across northern and central Nicaragua into much of Honduras, with isolated amounts of 35 inches. Rainfall accumulations of 10-20 inches are forecast for eastern Guatemala and southern Belize, and 10-15 inches for portions of Panama and Costa Rica. For more information, especially on specific rainfall amounts for countries to be impacted by Eta, please refer to the NHC Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov in addition to bulletins and forecasts that are provided by your national meteorological service. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move into the northern Gulf waters this evening, and quickly reach the Florida Keys and the northern Yucatan peninsula by Mon morning. Strong to near gale force northerly winds are expected across most of the Gulf region tonight through Mon night. Northerly winds are expected to reach minimal gale force off Veracruz, Mexico from late tonight through early Mon evening. Seas are forecast to build to 10-11 ft. Strong to near gale force winds are expected to continue over the southeastern Gulf Tue through Thu due to the pressure gradient between Tropical Cyclone Eta and strong high pressure centered offshore New England. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A low-amplitude tropical wave is along 43W from 11N southward moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N-08N between 40W-43W. The tropical wave previously located in the western Caribbean is not longer identifiable in the Tropical Wave Diagnostics and the streamlines analysis. In addition, scatterometer data show Nly winds all the way from western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras in association with the outer cyclonic circulation of Eta. This tropical wave should be removed from the next surface map at 00Z. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea Bissau near 12N16W to 10N19W. The ITCZ continues from 10N19W to 06N30W to 05N40W to the coast of Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 03N-09N between 30W-34W, and from 07N-09N between 34W-40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Mexico. Please, see Special Feature section for details. High pressure is already building across the Gulf waters and the eastern slopes of Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico, ahead of a cold front forecast to move quickly across the region. Convective clouds streets are observed parallel to the winds due to advection of cold air over relatively warm waters. A surface trough extends over the eastern Gulf from N Florida near 30N83W to the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to fresh Nly winds are on the west side of the trough per scatterometer data while gentle E-SE winds are noted on the E side. The trough will move E across Florida by tonight as pressure continues to build across the Gulf waters. CARIBBEAN SEA... Attention remains focused on Tropical Storm Eta forecast to strengthen into a hurricane tonight. It is the first time we have reached the Greek letter Eta in naming storms. With this tropical cyclone now in the Caribbean Sea, the all time record of twenty- eight named storms established in 2005 has been tied. For more details on T.S. Eta and the associated rainfall amounts, please see the Special Features section above. In the eastern Caribbean, fresh to locally strong trade winds dominates the area with seas of 6-8 ft. Abundant cloudiness with embedded showers are also noted. ATLANTIC OCEAN... W of 65W, a stationary front extending along 30N will dissipate this evening. A strong cold front will sweep across the forecast area tonight through Tue, and will stall from near 27N65W to the central Bahamas Tue night before dissipating Wed night. Strong to near gale force north to northwest winds and building seas are expected behind the front and will affect both the Bahamas and the Straits of Florida through Thu as strong high pressure builds across the region in the wake of the front. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area in under the influence of a 1034 mb high pressure located near 41N48W. Mainly moderate to locally fresh winds are along the southern periphery of the Atlantic ridge. A cold front crosses the Canary Islands and extends SW to near 30N50W where it becomes stationary. A surface trough is forecast to develop along 36W N of 23N by Mon evening. The trough will move westward as a strong high pressure builds over the E and central Atlantic bringing an increase in winds and seas. $$ GR