000 AXNT20 KNHC 011730 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Nov 01 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Eta is centered near 14.8N 77.2W at 01/1500 UTC, or about 196 nm S of Kingston, Jamaica and 348 nm E of Cabo Gracias a Dios near the Honduras/Nicaragua Border, moving W at 13 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. The maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted near and west of the center of Eta from 13N-16N between 76W-79W. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the central Caribbean from 12N-18N between 73W-82W. Peak seas are reaching 15 ft with 12 ft seas extending within 60 nm in the N semicircle, 45 nm in the SE quadrant and 30 nm in the SW quadrant. Eta will continue moving westward while decreasing in forward speed through tonight. A slower motion toward the west-southwest is forecast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone is expected to be near the northeastern coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras by Tuesday morning. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Eta is expected to become a hurricane by late Monday before it reaches the coast of Central America by early Tuesday. There is a risk of storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall across portions of Nicaragua and Honduras. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue through Thursday afternoon and may lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. For more information, especially on specific rainfall amounts for countries to be impacted by Eta, please refer to the NHC Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov in addition to bulletins and forecasts that are provided by your national meteorological service. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Strong high pressure will build across the Gulf of Mexico beginning late Sunday night into the upcoming week in the wake of a strong cold front. As a result, northerly winds within 60 nm of Veracruz are expected to increase to gale force starting early on Mon and through late Mon afternoon, with seas building to near 11 ft there. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean short-amplitude tropical wave has an axis along 42W from 11N southward moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 50 nm of the wave from 06N-11N. A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave has an axis along 83W from 20N southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. This wave is ahead of Tropical Storm Eta and is embedded in a very moist and unstable atmospheric environment. Scattered moderate convection is moving across Nicaragua and portions of Honduras from 12N-16N between 82W-86W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 11N15W to 10N18W. The ITCZ continues from 10N18W to 05N41W, then continues west of a tropical wave near 05N42W to the coast of Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of the monsoon trough from 01N-07N between 11W-17W. Scattered moderate convection is along the ITCZ from 02N-11N between 22W-49W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends off the northern Florida coast near 29N83W to 27N84W. Scattered thunderstorms noted within 70 nm of the trough, especially just north of the Tampa Bay area. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are to the west of the trough and light easterly winds are east of the trough. Another trough is in the southern Gulf from 25N84W to 21N86W. No significant convection is associated with this feature. However, moderate to fresh NNW winds are on the west side of the trough with light to gentle ENE winds on the east side. Otherwise, high pressure extends across the rest of the Gulf with moderate to fresh northerly winds. Seas are averaging 2-3 ft. A strong cold front will move into the northern Gulf today, and quickly reach to just southeast of the Gulf early on Mon and to east of Florida Mon afternoon. Fresh to near gale force northerly winds are expected across the region tonight through Tue night. Northerly winds are expected to reach gale force speeds off Veracruz, Mexico from late tonight through Mon afternoon. Strong to near gale force winds are expected to continue over the southeastern Gulf Wed and Thu due to the combination between strong high pressure centered offshore New England building south over the Gulf and Tropical Storm Eta in the Caribbean. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for the latest information on Tropical Storm Eta and the tropical waves section on the western Caribbean tropical wave bringing rainfall to Nicaragua and Honduras. A trough extends off the coast of the Yucatan and Belize with showers within 50 nm of it. Scattered moderate convection continues to move across the southern Lesser Antilles from 11N-15N between 69W-64W. Fresh to near-gale force winds are noted across the northeast and central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds are noted off the central Cuban coast. Otherwise, light to moderate easterly winds are in the southern basin and moderate northerly winds in the western Caribbean. Outside of the influence of Eta, seas are averaging 3-6 ft. Tropical Storm Eta will move to 14.9N 78.9W this evening, 14.9N 80.6W Mon morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 14.5N 81.9W Mon evening, 14.2N 82.7W Tue morning, inland to 13.9N 83.6W Tue evening, and move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 13.8N 84.4W Wed morning. Eta will weaken to a tropical depression while moving inland near 14.1N 86.7W early Thu. A tropical wave near 83W will continue to move inland Central America today with heavy showers and thunderstorms, some with gusty winds. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the central Atlantic from 31N50W to 30N60W then stalls from 30N60W to 26N73W. Showers are noted within 50 nm of the front. Fresh ENE winds are north of the front with light SE winds south of the front. Otherwise, surface ridging extends across the central and eastern Caribbean. Light to gentle winds prevail across the basin. Seas are averaging 6-11 ft with 3-6 ft around the Bahamas. The stationary front will dissipate north of 26N by early this afternoon. A strong cold front will sweep across the forecast area Sun night through Tue, and will stall from near 27N65W to the central Bahamas Tue night before dissipating Wed night. Strong to near gale force north to northwest winds and building seas are expected behind the front and will affect both the Bahamas and the Straits of Florida through most of the upcoming week as strong high pressure builds across the region in the wake of the front. $$ AReinhart