000 AXNT20 KNHC 011205 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Nov 1 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm ETA is centered near 15.2N 75.7W at at 01/0900 UTC or 180 nm SSE of Kingston, Jamaica, which is also about 435 nm E of Cabo Gracias A Dios that is along the border of Honduras and Nicaragua. ETA is moving westward or 275 degrees at 13 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 knots. The last few satellite images, including the current on, show clusters of scattered moderate to strong convection increasing just west and within 120 nm of the center in the SW quadrant. A large band is noted well to the northeast and east of the center. It consists of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 14N to 18N between 73W-77W and from 13N to 14N between 72W-73W. Similar activity is within 60 nm of 11N77W, and within 30 nm of line from 15N79W to 16N78W to 17N77W. Some decrease in forward speed of its current motion is expected to continue today and tonight. A slower motion toward the west-southwest is forecast on Mon and Tue. On the forecast track, the center of ETA is expected to be near the northeastern coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras by Tuesday morning. ETA is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane near 15.1N 81.2W Mon afternoon with maximum sustained winds 65 kt. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Strong high pressure will build across the Gulf of Mexico beginning late tonight and through well into the upcoming week in the wake of a strong cold front. As a result, northerly winds within 60 nm of Veracruz are expected to increase to gale force starting early on Mon and through late Mon afternoon, with seas building to near 11 ft there. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT@.shtml for more details. A Potential Heavy Rainfall event: A heavy rainfall event is possible in parts of Central America into early next week, particularly in: western Panama, Costa Rica, Nicaragua and Honduras. Flash floods and mudslides may be possible, if heavy rainfall occurs. It is possible for the rainfall threat to be enhanced by Tropical Storm ETA. Please, refer to bulletins and forecasts that are provided by your national meteorological service, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic short-amplitude tropical wave has its axis along 39W/40W from 02N-12N. It is westward near 15 knots. Scattered small cluster of showers and thunderstorms are within 120 nm west of the wave from 05N to 07N and within 60 nm east of the wave from 03N to 08N. A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 80W and south of 21N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. This wave is positioned out ahead of Tropical Storm ETA. It is embedded within a very moisture and unstable atmospheric environment. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 30 nm of a line from 15N79W to 15N81W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 1240 nm either side of the wave from 18N to 20N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, to 09N18W, where overnight scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 06N25W to 06N34W and to 06N39W. It resumes at 05N41W to 06N48W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 31W-37W and within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 42W-47W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 31W-35W. An area of scattered moderate convection is seen from 02N to 06N between 19W-29W, and just offshore the coast of Africa within 60 nm of line from 04N11W to 08N15W. GULF OF MEXICO... A dissipating stationary front extends from near the Florida Keys to northwestern Cuba and to the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Isolated showers are over the far southeastern Gulf. High building east-southeastward is present over the area. A relatively tight gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure over the western Caribbean Sea is allowing for moderate o fresh northeast winds to exist over the Yucatan Channel and along the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula and near the tip of northwestern Cuba. Winds elsewhere are general light to gentle in speeds. A strong cold front will move into the northern Gulf today, and quickly reach to just southeast of the Gulf early on Mon and to east of Florida Mon afternoon. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected across the region tonight through Tue night. Northerly winds are expected to reach gale force speeds off Veracruz, Mexico from late tonight through Mon afternoon. Strong winds are expected to continue over the southeastern Gulf beginning this afternoon and Thu due to the combination between strong high pressure centered offshore New England building south over the Gulf and Tropical Storm ETA in the Caribbean. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for the latest information on Tropical Storm ETA. Other than the tropical wave along 80W as described above and Tropical Storm ETA, the atmosphere remains very unstable throughout as noted by the presence of scattered o numerous showers and thunderstorms that are occurring over the majority of the basin south of 20N and east of 85W. Similar activity is moving across the Lesser Antilles and into the far eastern Caribbean. Some of this activity may have strong gusty winds. Tropical Storm Eta near 15.2N 75.7W 1005 mb at 4 AM EDT moving W at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Eta will move to near 15.3N 77.7W this afternoon, to near 15.3N 79.7W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt, then strengthen to a hurricane near 15.1N 81.2W Mon afternoon with maximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt as it tracks west- southwest, then move to near 14.7N 82.2W late Mon night with maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt and to near 14.4N 83.0W Tue afternoon with maximum sustained wind 80 kt gusts 100 kt. Eta will move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 14.2N 83.7W late Tue night on Wed and to a depression well inland near 14.3N 85.7W late Wed night. The tropical wave near 80W will move inland Central America Mon night and help to further enhance convection over most areas of Central America. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The previously analyzed stationary front has dissipated. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are north of 29N between 60W-69W and from 26N to 28N between 69W-73W. A surface ridge extends from a 1028 mb high pressure center that is near 36N12W, to a 1026 mb high pressure center that is near 32N27W, to 30N37W and to 29N57W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 18N northward, from 60W eastward. A strong cold front will sweep across the forecast area, from Suny night through Tuesday, and will stall from near 27N65W to the central Bahamas on Tuesday night, before dissipating on Wednesday night. Strong to near gale-force north to northwest winds and building seas are expected behind the front, and will affect both the Bahamas and the Straits of Florida through most of the upcoming week as strong high pressure builds across the region in the wake of the front. $$ Aguirre