000 AXNT20 KNHC 302248 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Oct 30 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A tropical wave is along 64W/65W from 20N southward across the Anegada Passage to northern Venezuela, moving westward at 15 kt. Low pressure of 1007 mb is along the wave axis near 14N67W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 60 nm of the low, as well as between 60 nm and 240 nm in the north and east quadrants of the low. This low is expected to gradually become better organized. A tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week as the system moves westward across the central and western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of the ABC islands and Jamaica through the weekend. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for further details. Potential Heavy Rainfall event: A heavy rainfall event is possible across portions of Central America late this weekend into early next week, particularly across western Panama, Costa Rica, Nicaragua and Honduras. If heavy rainfall occurs, flash flooding and mudslides may be possible. The rainfall threat could be further enhanced by the special feature mentioned above. Refer to statements provided by your national meteorological service for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 26W from 12N southward to the equator, moving W at around 15 kt. Associated convection is described below. A tropical wave axis is along 64W. Refer to the Special Features section above for more details. A tropical wave axis is along 72W/73W from the Turks and Caicos southward across Haiti to near the Venezuela/Colombia border, moving W at around 10 kt. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring near the wave axis. A tropical wave axis is along 88W/89W from near the northern border of Belize/Mexico southward across the far western Gulf of Honduras and western Honduras, moving W at around 10 kt. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted over portions of the northwest Caribbean Sea near the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from Africa near 10N13W to 08N16W. The ITCZ axis extends from 08N16W to 06N26W to 03N40W to the coast of Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 01N-09N between 18W-40W. Similar convection is noted from 06N-09N between 53W-57W, and from 12N -14N between 53W-61W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from near Lake Okeechobee, Florida to near Macro Island, Florida to the northern Yucatan Peninsula near 21N88W. A pre-frontal trough is noted above 15-30 nm ahead of the front from 22N to 29N. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are occurring within 90 nm ahead of the front. High pressure continues to build across the Gulf behind the cold front. Earlier scatterometer data showed moderate to fresh northerly winds behind the front north of 24N, with fresh to strong winds south of 24N, strongest near the coast of Veracruz, Mexico. Seas are mainly 4 to 7 ft north of 24N, and 8 to 11 ft south of 24N. The cold front will push SE tonight, potentially stalling somewhere in the vicinity of the Straits of Florida to the Yucatan Channel with high pressure continue to build in its wake. A reinforcing and stronger cold front will move into the northern Gulf Sun, extend from southern Florida to the Yucatan peninsula on Mon, and move south of the area Mon night. Fresh to strong north to northeast winds are expected across the region Sun through Tue behind the front along with building seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Special Features section for information on the tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean, and the potential heavy rainfall event in Central America late this weekend into early next week. A 1009 mb low is noted in the SW Caribbean near 10N81W. The monsoon trough extends along the low from the near the Coast Rica/Nicaragua border to just north of the coast of Colombia. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 10N-16N between 79W-83W. Moderate to fresh trades are noted in the eastern Caribbean with light to gentle winds across the rest of the basin. Seas are 1-3 ft in the northwest Caribbean, 4-6 ft in the central Caribbean, and 7-9 ft in the eastern Caribbean. High pressure will build north of the area in the wake of the eastern Caribbean tropical wave discussed above in the Special Features section. This high will support fresh to strong winds spreading from the eastern Caribbean to the central Caribbean behind the feature. Winds will diminish in the eastern and central Caribbean late this weekend into early next week as the high weakens and retreats due to a strong cold front which will be northwest and north of the area. That front is expected to move into the northwest Caribbean, but details regarding how far southeast it manages to progress remain to be seen. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from near 32N72W to near Jupiter Florida. A pre-frontal trough is located about 15-30 nm ahead of the front to the south of 29N. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible near the front. Moderate to fresh northerly winds follow the front, with fresh to strong southwest winds ahead of the front mainly north of 29N, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere southeast of the front. The cold front will extend from near Bermuda to southern Florida tonight, then stall and dissipate from 28N69W to the Florida Keys Sat. A reinforcing and stronger cold front will sweep across the forecast area Sun night through Tue, with strong northerly winds and building seas behind it. $$ Lewitsky