000 AXNT20 KNHC 301030 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Oct 30 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W, from 19N southward, moving westward at 15 kt. A weak 1008 mb low is analyzed along the wave axis near 13N63W. Scattered moderate to convection is noted from 12N to 14N between 61W and 64W. Atmospheric conditions are expected to be conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the time the system reaches the western Caribbean Sea by early next week. The potential for formation into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is medium. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 21W from 10N southward, moving westward at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is within 240 nm on either side of the tropical wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W. See Special Features section above for information about this wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W from 22N southward, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 15N in the Caribbean Sea to 25N in the Atlantic Ocean between 66W and 74W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 85W, from 23N southward, moving westward at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is near the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 07N14W. The ITCZ continues from 07N14W to 05N28W to 07N51W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 05N to 12N between 35W and 53W, and scattered moderate isolated strong is elsewhere from 01N to 13N between 23W and 54W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from Fort Myers Florida to the Yucatan peninsula. Scatterometer data shows fresh northerly winds across most of the basin, with strongest winds near the Texas coast and in the Bay of Campeche. Isolated moderate showers are evident near the frontal boundary. The cold front will move southeast of the area later today. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected in the Bay of Campeche today. A strong cold front will move into the northern Gulf on Sunday, extend from southern Florida to the Yucatan peninsula on Monday, then move south of the area on Tuesday. Fresh to strong north to northeast winds are expected across the region Sunday through Tuesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Tropical waves along 63W, 71W and 85W are moving westward across the Caribbean Sea. The tropical wave along 63W has a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. See the Special Features section above for more details. Showers and thunderstorms associated with the other tropical waves are discussed in the Tropical Waves section above. The eastern extension of the monsoon trough in the eastern Pacific Ocean is along 10N to 11N, from 73W in northern Colombia into Costa Rica. Widely scattered moderate showers are noted from 10N to 13N southward from 75W westward. Little change in the position of the monsoon trough in the SW Caribbean is expected through Sat. Active weather associated with the tropical wave moving into the eastern Caribbean will shift westward into the western Caribbean Sea through Fri night. An area of low pressure is expected to develop from this wave in the Caribbean Sea this weekend, and a tropical depression could form by early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front moving off the southeastern coast of the U.S. extends from 32N79W into northern Florida near 28N81W. Isolated moderate showers are near and along the frontal boundary. Fresh to strong southerly winds are north of 28N ahead of the front to 72W. A surface trough is analyzed along 13N54W to 07N52W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the trough axis. The trough is expected to weaken as it approaches the Lesser Antilles tonight. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward, associated with an elongated 1023 mb high pressure centered near 32N26W. Generally fair weather conditions prevail across most of the tropical Atlantic Ocean, north of 20N and east of 65W. The cold front moving off the NE Florida coast will extend from near Bermuda to southern Florida this evening, then stall and dissipate from 28N65W to the Florida Keys on Saturday. Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected ahead of the front across northern waters today. A strong cold front will sweep across the forecast area Sunday night through Tuesday, with strong north to northeast winds and building seas expected NW of the front. $$ Mundell