000 AXNT20 KNHC 292327 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Oct 29 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Post-Tropical Cyclone Zeta is racing across the Mid-Atlantic States, centered near 38.8N 75.3W at 2100 UTC, or about 25 mi WSW of Cape May, New Jersey, moving NE at 55 mph. Estimated central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 mph with gusts to 60 mph. On this track, Zeta is expected to move out over the waters of the western Atlantic this evening and become absorbed by a frontal system over the western Atlantic by Friday night. Please read the last NHC Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is analyzed off the west coast of Africa, along 17W/18W, from 11N southward, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted ahead of the wave near the ITCZ, from 02N to 05N between 18W and 23W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is analyzed along 60W from 19N southward, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 11N-17N between 57.5W-62W. Strong easterly trade winds and high seas trail the wave across the Tropical Atlantic to the central Lesser Antilles. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is analyzed along 67W from 22N southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 11.5N-19N between 63W-70W. Upper- level winds are expected to become more conducive for development of this disturbance during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week while the system and the tropical wave along 60W moves westward across the central and western Caribbean Sea and gradually merge. This system has a low chance of formation through the next 48 hours and a medium chance through the next 5 days. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is analyzed along 82W from 22N southward, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 10N-17N between 77W-84W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W to 05N30W to the coast of French Guiana near 05N54W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N-10N between 26W- 42W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N-12.5N between 43W-54W. GULF OF MEXICO... At 1800 UTC, a cold front stretches from the western Florida Panhandle near 30.5N86.5W across the Gulf to the central Bay of Campeche near 18.5N94.5W. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed from the Florida Big Bend to the NW Yucatan Peninsula. Showers and a few weak thunderstorms are observed along the front and pre- frontal trough in the NE Gulf north of 26N, while scattered showers and isolated moderate thunderstorms are observed between the trough and the front south of 23N to the Bay of Campeche. High pressure is building across the western Gulf behind the cold front with fresh to strong NW winds, especially off the coasts N of 27N between Texas and the Florida Panhandle, where seas are 7-8 ft. Near gale force NNW winds are occurring off of Veracruz Mexico where seas are building to 8-10 ft. Moderate to fresh SW winds are noted ahead of the front. Zeta weakened to a tropical storm inland and is moving across portions of Virginia and North Carolina. Zeta will continue racing northeast away from the Gulf today and will become extratropical this afternoon. Marine conditions along the northern Gulf coast will quickly improve tonight as the cold front will move quickly east and clear the basin by Fri. Fresh to strong northwest winds behind the front will spread across the Gulf through early Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... See Tropical Waves section above for information on two tropical waves crossing the Caribbean. These tropical waves have the potential for tropical development this weekend or early next week. The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends from 11N75W to low pres 1009 mb near 11N81W to the coast of Costa Rica near 09N82W. Moderate to fresh trades are noted in the eastern and central Caribbean with strong east winds and seas to 8 ft spreading through the Atlantic Passages of the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle trades in the western basin where seas are averaging 3-6 ft. The western Caribbean tropical wave is moving ashore across Central America this evening. Another tropical wave along 60W will cross into the eastern Caribbean tonight, the central Caribbean through Fri night then enter the western Caribbean this weekend. Thunderstorms and gusty winds will accompany this wave. This wave is expected to help low pressure to form in the SW Caribbean this weekend. Gradually development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form early next week while the system meanders in the SW Caribbean. This system has the potential to bring heavy rainfall across portions of Central America by the end of the weekend into early next week, mostly from Honduras southward toward Costa Rica. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the above tropical waves section for details on the tropical wave reaching the Lesser Antilles. High pressure dominates the rest of the basin anchored by a 1022 mb high near 32N26W extending a ridge to a second 1022 mb high near 29N44W then extending weakly westward to northern Florida. Fresh to strong SSW winds are noted off the northeast Florida and Georgia coasts and extend eastward into offshore waters of the western Atlantic. Otherwise, light to gentle easterly winds are seen across the rest of the basin. Seas are averaging 5-8 ft. A tight pressure gradient between lower pressure in the Caribbean and high pressure over the central Atlantic will lead to moderate to fresh winds south of 27N tonight, while strong tradewinds to 25 kt follow the tropical wave reaching the Lesser Antilles. A cold front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast Thu night, with some strong southwest winds ahead of it, north of about 29N. These winds will spread east as the front reaches a line from Bermuda to the Bahamas to Cuba this weekend and stalls. Some strong north winds are possible behind the front north of about 29N this weekend. A stronger cold front will sweep across the western half of the area Sun night through Tue, followed by strong to near gale force north to northeast winds and building seas. $$ Stripling