000 AXNT20 KNHC 291752 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Oct 29 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1640 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Zeta is centered well inland near 36.5N 81.5W at 29/1500 UTC, about 87 nm NE of Asheville, NC, moving NE at 45 kt. Estimated central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. There is no convection associated with Zeta over the Gulf. Strong, damaging wind gusts, which could cause tree damage and power outages, will continue to spread eastward across portions of the Carolinas and southeastern Virginia through this afternoon due to Zetas fast forward speed. Zeta is expected to have an even faster northeastward motion later today, followed by a rapid east- northeastward motion tonight and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move across the Mid-Atlantic states this afternoon, and emerge over the western Atlantic by tonight. Zeta is expected to become a non-tropical gale-force low later today. The low should become absorbed by a frontal system over the western Atlantic by Friday night. Please read the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 58W from 19N southward, moving westward at 15 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 11N-17N between 56W- 62W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave has an axis along 65W from 22N southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N-20N between 64W-69W. Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive for development of this disturbance during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week while the system moves westward across the central and western Caribbean Sea. This system has a low chance of formation through the next 48 hours and a medium chance through the next 5 days. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave has an axis along 81W from 22N southward, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 10N-16N between 79W- 83W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 07N11W to 06N13W. The ITCZ continues from 06N13W to 05N31W to the coast of French Guiana near 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ from 03N-10N between 27W-53W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted along the monsoon trough and ITCZ from 01N-08N between 12W-23W. GULF OF MEXICO... At 1500 UTC, a cold front stretches from the western Florida Panhandle near 30N87W to 24N91W. The front stalls from 24N91W and extends southward to southern Mexico near 19N95W. A pre- frontal trough is analyzed from the Florida Panhandle near 30N84W to 24N89W. Another trough extends across the eastern Bay of Campeche from 22N91W to 19N91W. Showers are observed along the front and pre-frontal trough in the eastern and central Gulf from 19N-30N between 84W-93W. High pressure is building across the western Gulf behind the cold front with fresh to strong WNW winds especially off the coast of Texas eastward toward the coast of Mississippi. Moderate to fresh SW winds are noted ahead of the front. Light to gentle winds are in the southeastern Gulf. Seas are averaging 6-9 ft across most of the basin with upwards of 10 ft off the Louisiana coast. Seas are 3-4 ft in the southeastern Gulf. Zeta weakened to a tropical storm inland and is moving across portions of Virginia and North Carolina. Zeta will continue racing northeast away from the Gulf today and will become extratropical this afternoon. Marine conditions along the northern Gulf coast will quickly improve today. The cold front will move quickly east and clear the basin by Fri. Fresh to strong northwest winds behind the front will spread across the Gulf through early Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... See Tropical Waves section above for information on two tropical waves crossing the Caribbean. These tropical waves have the potential for tropical development this weekend or early next week. The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends from the Colombia coast near 11N75W to the coast of Costa Rica near 09N81W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N-12N between 75W- 79W. Moderate to fresh trades are noted in the eastern and central Caribbean with light to gentle trades in the western basin. Seas are averaging 3-6 ft. A western Caribbean tropical wave is around 80W and will reach Central America tonight. Another tropical wave along 58W will cross into the eastern Caribbean through tonight, the central Caribbean through Fri night then enter the western Caribbean this weekend. Thunderstorms and gusty winds will accompany this wave. This wave is expected to help low pressure to form in the SW Caribbean this weekend. Gradually development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form early next week while the system meanders in the SW Caribbean. This system has the potential to bring heavy rainfall across portions of Central America by the end of the weekend into early next week, mostly from Honduras southward toward Costa Rica. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the above tropical waves section for details on a tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles. High pressure dominates the rest of the basin anchored by a 1022 mb high near 29N44W. Fresh to strong southerly winds are noted off the northeast Florida coast in the western Atlantic. Otherwise, light to gentle easterly winds are seen across the rest of the basin. Seas are averaging 5-8 ft. A tight pressure gradient between lower pressure in the Caribbean and high pressure over the central Atlantic will lead to moderate to fresh winds south of 27N today. A cold front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast Thu night, with some strong southwest winds ahead of it, north of about 29N. These winds will spread east as the front reaches a line from Bermuda to the Bahamas to Cuba this weekend and stalls. Some strong north winds are possible behind the front north of about 29N this weekend. A stronger cold front will sweep across the western half of the area Sun night through Tue, followed by strong to near gale force north to northeast winds and building seas. $$ AReinhart