000 AXNT20 KNHC 271025 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Oct 27 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Zeta has weakened to a tropical storm over the Yucatan Peninsula overnight, and is centered near 21.0N 88.4W at 27/0900 UTC or 70 nm ESE of Progreso Mexico. Tropical Storm Zeta is moving NW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 17N to 24N between 84W and 91W, including the Yucatan Peninsula. Along, scattered moderate convection is located along a band from 21N84N to 11N78W. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will emerge into the Gulf of Mexico later this morning, then restrengthen to a hurricane this afternoon. Zeta is then expected to accelerate northward, and the center should reach the northern Gulf coast late Wed at or near hurricane strength. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest on Zeta NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 50W from 03N to 16N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N to 16N between 48N and 53W. Fresh to locally strong winds are occurring behind the wave axis. A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis along 65W from Venezuela to the U.S. Virgin Islands. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing S of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands in association with this wave. Scattered showers and thunderstorms just east of the Lesser Antilles, S of 20N, are being produced by an upper-level trough that is nearly stationary over the area. The wave will slow down today over Puerto Rico then reach the Dominican Republic tonight. The wave will increase the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms across the Greater Antilles. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from near the Sierra Leone/Liberia border to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 04N30W to 06N49W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate convection is from 03N-06N between 08W-11W and from 07N-09N E of 15W to the W coast of Africa. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Zeta. Hurricane conditions and life-threatening storm surge are expected along portions of the northern Gulf Coast by late Wed, and Storm Surge and Hurricane Warnings are in effect. Residents in the warning areas should follow any advice given by local officials. Away from the direct influence of Zeta, gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere across the Gulf waters. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf Wed and stretch from Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula by late Thu. It will exit S and E of the basin Fri night. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds will follow behind the front through Fri night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Zeta. Tropical storm continues will continue in portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula this morning. Heavy rainfall is expected across the Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba today, which could lead to flash flooding in urban areas. Previous convection over Central America from moist southwesterly flow over the area has diminished. Away from the direct influence of Zeta, moderate to fresh trade winds are noted per scatterometer data across the remainder of the basin, with the exception of mainly light to gentle winds over the SW Caribbean. A tropical wave has crossed the Lesser Antilles overnight and is followed by fresh to strong east winds. The wave will move across the eastern Caribbean through tonight, the central Caribbean through Wed night, and the western Caribbean by Thu night. Another tropical wave will approach the Lesser Antilles Wed night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The Atlantic forecast waters are under the influence of a 1027 mb high pressure centered southwest of the Azores near 32N38W. A surface trough is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms from 31N70W into the northwest and central Bahamas. A belt of fresh to locally strong easterly winds are noted along the southern periphery of the ridge but mainly E of 55W. The pressure gradient between high pressure in the central Atlantic and lower pressure over the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico will lead to moderate to fresh SW winds S of 27N through Thu. A cold front will move into the NW waters Fri, with some strong SW winds ahead of it. The front will reach 29N65W to the central Bahamas by late Sat. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will follow this front, mainly N of 28N, through the weekend. A combination of northerly and easterly swell generated from a tropical wave passing south of the the area Wed will keep seas at 8 to 10 ft N and E of Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands into Thu. $$ KONARIK