000 AXNT20 KNHC 270555 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Oct 27 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Hurricane Zeta made landfall along the northeast coast of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico near Ciudad Chemuyil around 11:00 PM CDT (0400 UTC) with estimated maximum winds of 70 kt (130 km/h), a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. At 27/0600, Hurricane Zeta is centered near 20.6N 87.9W or 30 nm NW of Tulum Mexico moving NW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 90 nm of center, except 150 nm SE quadrant. Currently, Zeta is producing strong winds and heavy rainfall over the northern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move over the northern Yucatan Peninsula this morning, move over the southern Gulf of Mexico later today, and approach the northern Gulf Coast in the watch area on Wednesday. Some additional weakening is likely while Zeta moves over the Yucatan Peninsula this morning. Zeta is forecast to re-strengthen when it moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico later today, and be at or near hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest on Zeta NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 47W/48W from 03N to 16N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the northern end of the wave axis, mainly from 12N-15N between 46W-50W. Scatterometer data show fresh E-SE winds behind the wave axis. A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis along 62W/63W. Surface observations clearly indicate the presence of the wave that is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Leeward Islands. Similar convective activity is also noted over the Windward Islands ahead of a mid- upper level trough that extends across the SE Caribbean into NE Venezuela. The wave is forecast to move across Puerto Rico and the UK/US Virgin Islands today, reaching Dominican Republic tonight. The wave will increase the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms across the Greater Antilles. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from near the Sierra Leone/Liberia border to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 04N30W to 06N46W to near the coast of French Guiana. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate convection is from 03N-06N between 08W-11W, from 07N-09N E of 15W to the W coast of Africa, and from 05N-11N between 35W-41W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Zeta. Hurricane conditions and life-threatening storm surge are possible along portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches are in effect. Residents in the watch areas should follow any advice given by local officials. Recent scatterometer data provide observations of fresh to strong winds over the SE Gulf and N of the Yucatan peninsula in association with the outer circulation of Zeta, with strongest winds of 30-35 kt across the Yucatan Channel. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere across the Gulf waters. Marine conditions will continue to deteriorate across the Gulf Tue and Wed as Zeta moves across the basin toward the northern Gulf coast. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf Wed, reach from southeastern Alabama early Thu and from near Sarasota, to the NW Yucatan Peninsula, to the far eastern Bay of Campeche by late Fri and weaken as it reaches the far southeastern Gulf water on Sat. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow in behind the front through Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Zeta. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected to continue in portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico through early Tuesday. Heavy rainfall is expected across the Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba through Tuesday, which could lead to flash flooding in urban areas. Fresh to strong winds associated with the cyclonic circulation of Zeta cover most of the NW Caribbean N of 17N and W of 80W as well as western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. These winds will persist over the NW Caribbean, including the Yucatan Channel this Tue. Outer bands of Zeta are reaching west and central Cuba. Southwesterly flow from the eastern Pacific region continues to advect abundant moisture over Central America, particularly across Nicaragua. This weather pattern will persist on Tue, with increasing moisture over Honduras as well. Moderate to fresh trade winds are noted per scatterometer data across the remainder of the basin, with the exception of mainly light to gentle winds over the SW Caribbean. The next tropical wave is forecast to reach the Caribbean Sea by Wed followed by a surge in the trade wind flow. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The Atlantic forecast waters are under the influence of a 1028 mb high pressure located SW of the Azores near 32N36W. This system extends a ridge westward toward the Bahamas and Florida. A belt of fresh to locally strong easterly winds are noted along the southern periphery of the ridge but mainly E of 50W. A cold front will move off NE Florida early on Fri and reach from near 29N65W to the central Bahamas and to near western Cuba by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds are expected on either side of the front N of 29N. Decaying long-period northeast swell over the waters north of Puerto Rico will continue through Tue night, before a set of east swell behind a tropical wave moves through those same waters Wed through Thu. $$ GR