000 AXNT20 KNHC 261025 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Oct 26 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Zeta is centered near 18.7N 84.3W at 26/0900 UTC or 180 nm SE of Cozumel Mexico moving NW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 14N to 20N between 81W and 87W. On the latest forecast track the center of Zeta will cross the northeast Yucatan Peninsula tonight and over the south-central Gulf of Mexico Tue, then approach the norther Gulf of Mexico Wed. Strengthening is forecast, and Zeta is expected to become a hurricane day before reaching the Yucatan Peninsula. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest on Zeta NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 39W from 04N to 16N, moving westward at about 10 kt. Satellite imagery indicates scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 04N-14N between 31W-43W. A tropical wave is along 57W from 07N to 18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 14N to 19N between 50W and 57W. A sharp upper-level trough with axis just E of Barbados is helping to induce this convective activity. Fresh to locally strong winds are also noted near the northern end of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from Guinea near 10N14W to 09N20W. The ITCZ continues from 09N20W to 07N31W to 07N44W to to near the coast of French Guiana. A surface trough is within the ITCZ and extends from 08N49W to 04N49W. Scattered moderate convection is along this trough axis from 43W to 51Q. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate convection is from 03N- 08N between 25-31W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Zeta currently located in the NW Caribbean Sea. Zeta is forecast to become a hurricane before entering the Gulf tonight, then will remain at or near hurricane strength as it moves northward through the south central Gulf Tue and it will approach the northern Gulf coast Wed. Zeta is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and there is an increasing risk of storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Zeta and updates to the forecast. Between Wednesday and Friday, storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local 6 inch amounts, is expected across sections of the central U.S. Gulf Coast near and in advance of Zeta. A surface trough is located from near Tampa Bay to the western tip of Cuba. Abundant moisture is associated with this system, that will continue to enhance shower and thunderstorm activity over South Florida and the Florida Keys on today. Moderate to locally fresh winds are occurring on both sides of this trough axis. A weak high pressure ridge dominates the western Gulf where mainly gentle to moderate winds are noted. Looking ahead, a cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf late Wed followed by fresh to locally strong winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Zeta located in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Hurricane conditions and storm surge are expected in portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico this evening through early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions could occur over extreme western Cuba today and tonight. Through Wednesday, heavy rainfall is ongoing and expected to continue from Zeta across portions of central and western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding in urban areas. Southwesterly flow from the eastern Pacific region will continue to advect abundant moisture over Central America but mainly from Panama to Nicaragua. This will maintain the likelihood of showers and tstms over that area on Mon. Fresh winds will prevail over the east-central Caribbean into Tue due to the pressure gradient between Zeta and high pressure over the Atlantic. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Epsilon is now a post-tropical cyclone in the far northern Atlantic, continuing to race northeastward away from he area. Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, portions of the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. A couple of tropical waves are between the W coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please, see Tropical Waves section for details. A surface trough is analyzed from a 1012 mb low pressure located N of area near 34N74W to near Melbourne Florida. Scattered moderate convection has developed ahead of this trough, encompassing the Bahamas and adjacent waters. A 1029 mb high pressure centered SW of the Azores near 33N32W dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast area. Fresh to locally strong trade winds are noted along the southern periphery of the Atlantic ridge mainly E of 55W. Similar wind speeds are observed between the ridge and lower pressures over W Africa. These winds are affecting the Canary Islands and the Atlantic waters of W Africa N of Dakar, Senegal. $$ KONARIK