867 AXNT20 KNHC 252246 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Oct 25 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Epsilon is centered near 46.2N 44.3W at 25/2100 UTC or 365 nm E of Cape Race Newfoundland moving ENE at 40 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Scattered moderate convection is mostly 300 nm in the NE quadrant. Little change in strength is expected over the next several hours, and Epsilon is expected to become a large and powerful extratropical cyclone tonight. Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, portions of the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by National Hurricane Center at website-https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Epsilon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Storm Zeta is centered near 17.7N 83.4W at 25/2100 UTC or 265 nm SSE of the western tip of Cuba. Zeta is stationary. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous strong convection is 260 nm in the southern semicircle. Zeta is stationary, but a generally northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will pass south of western Cuba early Monday and move near or over the northern Yucatan Peninsula or the Yucatan Channel late Monday, move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and reach the central Gulf of Mexico by late Tuesday. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Zeta is expected to become a hurricane before it moves near or over the Yucatan Peninsula late Monday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest on Zeta NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 35W from 03N to 15N, moving westward at about 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted where the wave meets the ITCZ, particularly from 07N-13N between 34W-38W. A tropical wave is located along 51W from 05N to 19N, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the northern portion of the wave axis from 13N-20N between 48W-54W. This convection is being enhanced to the west by an upper-level trough with an axis just E of Barbados. Fresh winds are also noted to the E of the wave axis. A tropical wave is across the central Caribbean with an axis along 73W, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted west of the wave from 14N-19N between 73W-79W. ASCAT pass shows fresh to strong east trades south of Hispaniola and east of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from Guinea near 10N14W to 09N20W. The ITCZ continues from 09N20W to 08N34W, the west of the tropical wave near 08N38W and dives southwest to 03N50W near the coast of Brazil. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate convection is from 03N-12N between 20W-34W, and from 03N-07N between 38W-48W. ASCAT Shows moderate to fresh easterly trades along and north of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Zeta in the western Caribbean Sea. As of 25/2100 UTC, a cold front enters the NE Gulf from the Panhandle of Florida near 29N83W to 24N89W, then transitions To a stationary front to 22N97W N of Tampico, Mexico. The front is void of precipitation and is expected to dissipate tonight. ASCAT indicates moderate SE winds north of the stationary front From 22N to 27N near Corpus Christi. Elsewhere, scattered showers are over S Florida and the Straits of Florida. Looking ahead, another cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf early on Wed followed by fresh to strong winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Zeta in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Zeta is expected to produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds across central and western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the northeast Yucatan Peninsula, and adjacent waters through Wednesday, with localized amounts of 12 inches possible. Fresh winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft will prevail east of the Windward Islands and in the E Caribbean into mid-week. Tropical Storm Zeta will move to 18.7N 84.3W Mon morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 19.7N 85.7W Mon afternoon, move inland over the Yucatan Peninsula near 21.1N 87.6W Tue morning, then offshore near 23.2N 89.6W Tue afternoon, 25.7N 90.8W Wed morning, and move inland over southern Louisiana and weaken to a tropical storm near 29.4N 90.3W Wed afternoon. Zeta will weaken to a tropical depression near 37.0N 83.0W by Thu afternoon. Fresh winds will prevail over the east-central Caribbean through the next 24 hours due to the pressure gradient between Zeta and high pressure over the Atlantic. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Epsilon. Long-period northeast swell generated from T.S. Epsilon in the north Atlantic will continue to impact areas northeast Of the Bahamas through tonight, and will also affect Bermuda, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. A couple of tropical waves are between the W coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please, see Tropical Waves section for details. A surface trough is analyzed N of the Bahamas extending from a 1013 mb low pressure near 31N78W to 27N80W. Scattered moderate convection is from the northern Bahamas 27N-31N between 67W-78W, and is being enhanced by upper level diffluence. A 1029 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 34N32W. This broad high is enhancing fresh to locally strong NE to E winds from 16N- 28N E of 55W. Strong NE winds are occurring between Western Sahara and the Cabo Verde Islands. Tropical Storm Zeta will remain west of the area, but will bring heavy rain and gusty winds to South Florida, the Florida Straits, and adjacent waters into mid-week. $$ MTorres