106 AXNT20 KNHC 241801 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Oct 24 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Epsilon is centered near 37.3N 61.2W at 24/1500 UTC or 404 nm NNE of Bermuda moving NE at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 90 nm of the center. Widely scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 33N-50N between 50W-70W. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml; and the Forecast/Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml, for more details. A 1009 mb low is centered SW of the Cayman Islands near 19N94W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 14N-20N between 78W-86W. The system is gradually becoming better organized, with a better defined wind circulation, increasing thunderstorm activity and falling surface pressures since yesterday. Environmental conditions are conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is expected to form within the next day or so while the low drifts toward the north and northwest. The system could move near western Cuba on Monday and move slowly across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday. Interests in western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this disturbance. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall will be possible over portions of the Cayman Islands, Jamaica and Cuba through early next week. There is a high chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook, www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32W from 13N southward, moving westward at 10 knots. Isolated moderate convection is within 180 nm of the wave axis. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W, from 13N southward, moving westward at 10 knots. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-16N between 51W-62W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W, from 18N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The ITCZ extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W, to 07N17W. The ITCZ extends from 07N17W to 08N30W. The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave near 07N33W to the coast of Brazil near 00N48W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features above for information on the low pressure in the Caribbean that is forecast to move into the Gulf of Mexico early next week. A surface trough is over the eastern Bay of Campeche from 20N92W to 17N93W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the trough. Elsewhere, isolated moderate convection is over the Straits of Florida. As of 24/1500 UTC, a cold front extends from S Alabama near 30N88W to NE Mexico near 24N98W. A prefrontal trough extends from the Florida Panhandle near 31N86W to 28N88W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on low pressure near the Cayman Islands that is likely to develop into a tropical depression this weekend. The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends into the southwest Caribbean from Panama near 09N80W to 11N76W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 08N-17N between 75W-79W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Epsilon. Swell will be impacting many Atlantic beaches this weekend. A surface trough is over the central Bahamas from 26N74W to 23N76W. Scattered moderate convection is from 23N-27N between 72W-80W. A 1030 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 34N35W. Another 1030 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 34N20W. Long-period northeast swell generated from Hurricane Epsilon, now well north of the area, will continue to impact the waters north and northeast of the Bahamas into Sun. Low pressure currently in the northwest Caribbean is likely to develop into a tropical depression as it moves into the southeast Gulf of Mexico by early next week. Heavy rain and gusty winds from this system may impact South Florida and the northwest Bahamas into early next week. $$ Formosa