000 AXNT20 KNHC 240555 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Oct 24 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... High surf and rip currents are possible along the beaches of the Atlantic Ocean coast during this weekend. The center of Hurricane Epsilon, at 24/0300 UTC, is near 36.5N 62.1W. This position is also about 285 nm/530 km to the NNE of Bermuda. EPSILON is moving toward the N, or 355 degrees, 11 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 70 knots with gusts to 85 kt. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 330 nm to 400 nm of the center in the E semicircle, within 120 nm of the center in the W semicircle, and within 300 nm of the center in the N quadrant. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml; and the Forecast/Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml, for more details. A 1006 mb low pressure center is in the NW Caribbean Sea near 19N82W, about 200 nm to the WNW of Jamaica, and about 240 nm to the SSE of NW Cuba. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong in clusters is within 480 nm of the center in the eastern semicircle. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong covers parts of northern Nicaragua and the eastern half of Honduras, and in the SE sections of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Other isolated moderate to locally strong in smaller clusters covers the areas that range from southern Honduras to the coastal waters of the NW part of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. The chance of this feature developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is high. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for more development. It is likely that a tropical depression may form during the next day or two. The low pressure center is forecast to drift toward the northwest. It is possible that the system may move near western Cuba by Sunday, and move slowly across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by early next week. Anyone who has interests in western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and southern Florida should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible in parts of the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Cuba, southern Florida, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas, through the weekend. Please refer to the latest NHC Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 29W/30W from 13N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: it is possible that any nearby precipitation may be more connected to the ITCZ. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 51W/53W, from 13N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 270 nm to the west of the tropical wave. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 17N southward between 40W and the tropical wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W/65W, from 19N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 430 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 15N southward. Scattered moderate to strong is within 90 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 13N to 15N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is inland in Africa. The ITCZ extends from the coastal plains of Senegal near 14N17W, to 09N27W, and from 02N to 04N between 31W and 50W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong in clusters is within 150 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 22W and 28W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 10N southward from 50W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 17N southward from 50W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1009 mb low pressure center is just to the south of 20N, about 45 nm off the coast of the NW part of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 45 nm of the coast of the NW part of the Yucatan Peninsula from 19.5N to 20.5N. A cold front is still inland. The cold front passes through western sections of Louisiana, to the upper Texas Gulf coast, to south central Texas. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery. A low pressure center that is in the northwest Caribbean Sea has a high chance of tropical formation this weekend, as it approaches western Cuba. This low pressure center is forecast to move northward, slowly, across the southern Gulf of Mexico early next week. Interests in Cuba, the Florida Keys, and South Florida should monitor closely the progress of this disturbance. Heavy rain is possible across these areas this weekend. A weak cold front will move into the NW Gulf on Saturday morning, it will stall, and then move northward, again, as a warm front, through Sunday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A NW Caribbean Sea 1006 mb low pressure center is forecast to have a high possibility of developing into a tropical cyclone, during the next 48 hours. Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details about this phenomenon. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong in clusters is within 480 nm of the center in the eastern semicircle. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong covers parts of northern Nicaragua and the eastern half of Honduras, and in the SE sections of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Other isolated moderate to locally strong in smaller clusters covers the areas that range from southern Honduras to the coastal waters of the NW part of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Anyone who has interests in western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and southern Florida should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible in parts of the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Cuba, southern Florida, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas, through the weekend. Please refer to the latest NHC Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2, for more details. The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N, from 73W in northern Colombia, beyond Costa Rica. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong in a few clusters is within 380 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between Lake Maracaibo in NW Venezuela and 80W. The current broad low pressure center that is just to the west of the Cayman Islands continues to show signs of organization. It is likely that a tropical depression may form this weekend, while the low drifts northwest toward western Cuba. Interests in the area of the NW Caribbean Sea and Cuba should monitor the progress of this low pressure center for development. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible in the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and Cuba this weekend. Winds and seas will increase to the east of the Windward Islands and in the E Caribbean Sea through early next week, between this low pressure center and higher pressure in the Atlantic Ocean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from the northern coastal sections of Haiti, into the Atlantic Ocean, for about 330 nm. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate to strong covers the areas that are from 23N to 26N between 67W and 79W, covering parts of the Bahamas. Long-period northeast swell, generated from Hurricane Epsilon, now well to the north of the area, will continue to impact the waters that are to the north and northeast of the Bahamas through Saturday night. Low pressure, that currently is in the NW Caribbean Sea, has a high chance of tropical development this weekend. This low pressure center now is forecast to move more northerly, into the Gulf of Mexico, and not into the SW Atlantic Ocean. Heavy rain and gusty winds still are possible across South Florida and the northwest Bahamas during this weekend. $$ mt