000 AXNT20 KNHC 232342 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Oct 23 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Epsilon is centered near 35.5N 61.7W at 23/2100 UTC, or about 250 nm northeast of Bermuda is moving N or 360 degrees at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Tropical storm-forced winds extend within 240 nm of the center in the northern semicircle and SE quadrant and within 120 nm of the center in the SW quadrant. Seas of 12 ft and greater extend outward very large distances from the center, up to 480 nm in the NW quadrant and 420 in the SE Quadrant. Maximum seas are up to 34 ft. Latest satellite imagery shows scattered moderate to intermittent isolated strong convection within 90 nm of the center in the W and NW quadrants and 60 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere within 150 nm of the center in the W semicircle and within 90 nm of the center in E semicircle. A large area of widespread areas of rain with embedded scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are observed well to the north and northeast of Epsilon from 39N to 42W between 62W-66W and from 38N to 42W between 53W-62W. Epsilon is forecast to continue on a general northward motion through early Sat, with a very fast forward motion toward the northeast anticipated early next week. Some fluctuations in strength could occur for the next day or so before Epsilon begins to gradually weaken on Sun. Epsilon could lose tropical characteristics late Sun. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. A 1007 mb low is over the northwestern Caribbean Sea near 19N82W, with a trough extending south-southeast to near 12N80W and another trough that extends from the low to Cozumel, Mexico. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 18N to 20N between 80W-84W, from 15N to 18N between 77W- 80W including western and central Jamaica and also from 13N to 17N between 75W-76W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 30 nm of a line from 16N80W to 16N84W and from 11N to 13N between 75W-76W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are elsewhere between 80W-87W. Montego Bay, Jamaica reported heavy shower and thunderstorm activity during the early afternoon hours and .74 inches during the past 24 hours ending at 12Z this morning. This system is part of a broad area of low pressures that is gradually becoming better defined with time. Atmospheric conditions appear conducive for further development, and a tropical depression will likely form during the next day or two while the low pressure drifts toward the northwest. The system could move near western Cuba by Sun, then move slowly across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by early next week. Interests in western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and southern Florida should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall will be possible over portions of the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Cuba, southern Florida, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas through the weekend. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone development during the next 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 27W/28W from 03N to 13N. It is moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm east and 120 nm west of the wave from 04N to 10N. A central Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has its axis along 50W/51W from 01N to 14N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm east of the wave from 09N to 13N. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm west of the wave from 10N to 12N. A tropical wave has crossed the Lesser Antilles into the eastern Caribbean Sea, with its axis along 62W south of 19N. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. This wave is underneath a sharp upper-level trough that extends from the central Atlantic to the eastern Caribbean. Atmospheric instability aloft induced by the trough is helping to promote scattered shower and thunderstorm activity within 120 nm west of the wave axis and south of 14N to within 90 nm inland the coast of Venezuela. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 09N20W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 05N27W to 05N40W to 05N45W and to 05N49W. It continues west of a tropical wave near 05N51W to inland French Guiana near 05N54W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between 22W-24W, within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 20W-26W, within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between 30W-33W and within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 33W-36W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1010 mb low is analyzed in the southeastern Bay of Campeche near 20N91W, with a trough extending northwestward to near 24N96W. An Ascat pass from this afternoon captured light to gentle winds shifting from northeast to east in direction northeast of the trough, to west to northwest in direction southwest of trough. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are over sections of the northern Yucatan Peninsula as well as over some areas of southeastern Mexico. A trough is along the Florida coast from Sarasota northward to inland northern Florida just east of Cross City. A sub-tropical jet stream branch stretches from the eastern Pacific Ocean eastward to over central Mexico and east-northeastward to across central Florida. A mid-level shortwave trough riding along this jet stream branch in combination with deep layer moisture that is already in place over the eastern Gulf is resulting in the development of scattered moderate convection from 25N to 27N between 84W-87W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are evident elsewhere between 83W-88W. Expect for this activity to continue through the weekend. A cold front, presently noted in satellite imagery over eastern and central Texas, will quickly move offshore the Texas coast this evening. A squall line rapidly surging south-southeastward precedes the front over northeastern Texas. A line of strong thunderstorms, with frequent lightning, is fast approaching the NE Texas coast. Isolated showers are seen west of 88W. Latest Ascat data indicates generally light to moderate east to southeast winds over the eastern Gulf, except for fresh wind speeds over the southeastern Gulf where a tighter gradient exists between the broad low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and high pressure that ridges south-southwestward from the eastern U.S. to the NE Gulf. Seas throughout per current buoy observations and latest altimeter data are in the range of 3-5 ft, with the highest of the range found in southeastern Gulf. As for the forecast, the broad low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea will continue to gradually become better defined over the next couple of days, with a high chance of it developing into to a tropical depression. It is expected that this area of low pressure will move across western Cuba into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, then move northward through the eastern Gulf through mid-week. Regardless of development, heavy rain is possible over western Cuba and South Florida into early next week. A weak cold front will move into the NW Gulf Sat morning, stall, then lift back north as a warm front through Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA See the Special Features section for details relating to broad low pressure are in the northwestern Caribbean. Aside from convection associated with the Special Features area of broad low pressure in the northwestern Caribbean Sea consisting of A 1007 mb low near 19N82W, with a trough extending south- southeast to near 12N80W and another trough to Cozumel, Mexico and the convection related to the eastern Caribbean tropical wave, clusters of scattered moderate to strong convection are occurring from 15N to 18N between 74W- 80W. This activity is being aided by an inverted mid-level trough axis that extends from near 14N75W to 12N80W. Isolated showers moving quickly westward are seen elsewhere across the basin, with the exception of scattered showers and thunderstorms that are along and just offshore the coasts of Panama and southern Costa Rica. Latest Ascat data depicts moderate to fresh trades in the south- central Caribbean and light to gentle trades elsewhere, with the exception of moderate to fresh east to southeast winds north and northeast of area of broad low pressure. Seas throughout are in the range of 4-6 ft, except for up to 8 ft east of 80W including the Mona Passage region. As for the forecast, the Special Features area of broad low pressure in the northwestern Caribbean will continue to gradually become better defined over the next couple of days, with a high chance that it will develop into a tropical depression as it moves near western Cuba by Sun, then move slowly across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by early next week. Interests in western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and southern Florida should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall will be possible over portions of the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Cuba, southern Florida, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas through the weekend. Winds and seas will increase east of the Windward Islands and in the eastern Caribbean through early next week between this low and higher pressure over the Atlantic. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Epsilon. Also, please see the Tropical Waves section above for information on the two Atlantic tropical waves. A trough extends from near 25N68W southwestward to northwest Haiti. Scattered moderate convection west of the trough south of 24N, including the southeastern Bahamas and the eastern part of the Straits of Florida. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 60 to 90 nm either side of the trough from 24N to 25N. Similar convection is within 120 nm southeast of a trough analyzed south of Epsilon that extends from 30N60W to 27N65W and to 26N70W. Latest Ascat data shows fresh to strong west to northwest winds west of the trough to 67W and north of 28N. Seas there are in the range of 8-12 ft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, moving eastward are within 30 nm of a line from 23N61W to 24N65W. High pressure is present elsewhere across the Atlantic east of 60W, with the culprit high pressure center anchored north of the area at 35N34W. Weaker high pressure is over the western Atlantic north of 28N and west of 70W. Latest Ascat data shows generally gentle to moderate east winds over the western Atlantic and mainly moderate to fresh east winds south of 22N between 55W and 60W, with seas of 6-8 ft in NE swell. Hurricane Epsilon is well north of the area to the northeast of Bermuda and is expected to continue northward through early Sat, with a very fast forward motion toward the northeast anticipated early next week. Epsilon could lose tropical characteristics late Sun. Long-period northeast swell generated from Hurricane Epsilon, now well north of the area, will continue to impact the waters north and northeast of the Bahamas through Sat. Low pressure moving northeast from Central Cuba has a high chance of tropical formation early next week over waters near South Florida and the northern and central Bahamas. Regardless of development, heavy rain and gusty winds are possible across South Florida and the Bahamas this weekend through early next week. $$ Aguirre