000 AXNT20 KNHC 231752 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Oct 23 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1720 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Epsilon is centered near 34.1N 61.6W at 23/1500 UTC, or 195 nm NE of Bermuda, moving N at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Tropical storm-forced winds are within 220 nm in the eastern semicircle, 120 nm in the SW quadrant, and 180 nm in the NW quadrant. Seas 12 ft or greater are noted within 420 nm in the NE quadrant, 480 nm in the NW quadrant and 360 nm in the eastern semicircle with seas to 34 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 300 nm in the northern semicircle. Epsilon will continue moving northward with increasing forward speed through early Saturday, with a very fast forward motion toward the northeast early next week. Some fluctuations in strength could occur for the next day or so before gradual weakening begins on Sunday. Epsilon could lose tropical characteristics late Sunday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. A 1008 mb low located near 19N82W is producing scattered moderate convection mainly east and south of the center from 14N- 22N between 76W-84W. This system has become much better organized since yesterday, and a tropical depression could form during the next couple of days while the low moves slowly toward the northwest. This system is now anticipated to move near western Cuba this weekend and move slowly across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by early next week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall will be possible over portions of the Cayman Islands, Cuba, southern Florida and the Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas through the weekend. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours and the next 5 days. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 26W, from 13N southward, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N-10N between 24W-28W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 49W, from 13N southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is located from 07N-13N between 47W-52W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 61W, from 18N southward, moving W at 10 kt and is crossing the Lesser Antilles. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N-13N between 59W-62W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N15W to 08N19W. The ITCZ continues from 08N19W to 05N25W, then continues W of a tropical wave near 04N27W to 05N48W. The ITCZ continues W of another tropical wave near 05N50W to the coast of French Guiana near 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection is within 300 nm N of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1010 mb low is located in the SE Bay of Campeche near 20N91W with a trough extending NW of the low to 22N94W. Scattered showers are noted along the coast of Mexico near this low. Scattered moderate convection is in the northern and eastern Gulf, N of 25N between 82W-88W. Scattered thunderstorms are also noted off the coast of Louisiana. Light to moderate easterly winds are in the eastern Gulf with light winds elsewhere. Seas are averaging 3-4 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly winds will persist over the eastern Gulf through Sat. Low pressure may track northeastward from western Cuba across the extreme SE Gulf and Florida Straits Sun. This low has a medium chance of tropical formation. Regardless of development, heavy rain is possible over western Cuba and South Florida into early next week. A weak cold front will move into the NW Gulf Sat morning, weaken further into a surface trough from northern Florida into the SW Gulf Sat night, then stall from South Florida to just north of the Yucatan by Sun night. Gentle to moderate return flow will establish across the basin on Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA See the Special Features section on the low pressure in the NW Caribbean. A 1008 mb low is located in the SW Caribbean near 10N75W with a trough extending north of the low to 13N78W. The monsoon trough extends west of the low to the coast of Panama/Colombia near 09N77W. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N-16N between 73W-78W. Scattered moderate convection is in the SE Caribbean from 11N-13N between 62W-65W. Moderate to fresh trades are in the south-central Caribbean with light to gentle trades elsewhere. Seas are averaging 3-6 ft with upwards of 8 ft in the central Caribbean. Weak low pressure near Grand Cayman Island is a little more organized. There is a medium chance this low will develop into a tropical depression over the next couple of days as it moves to near western Cuba and into the southeastern Gulf by early next week, accompanied by scattered thunderstorms. Regardless of development, heavy rain and gusty winds could impact the Cayman Islands, Cuba, and adjacent waters through the weekend. Winds and seas will increase east of the Windward Islands and in the E Caribbean through early next week between this low and higher pressure over the Atlantic. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Epsilon and the Tropical Waves section above for information on the tropical waves crossing the Atlantic. A surface trough extends off the northeastern Florida coast from 30N81W to 32N80W. Another trough extends north of Haiti across the Turks and Caicos Islands from 20N72W to 25N69W. Scattered moderate convection is within 50 nm of the trough. Scattered moderate convection is SE of Hurricane Epsilon in the central Atlantic, N of 21N between 51W-63W. Otherwise, ridging extends across the rest of the Atlantic anchored by a 1030 mb high near 34N37W. Moderate easterly winds are noted off the Florida coast and across the Bahamas with seas averaging 9-12 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly winds in the central and eastern Atlantic with seas averaging 8-12 ft. Hurricane Epsilon is well north of the area to the northeast of Bermuda and is expected to continue northward and become extratropical east of Newfoundland Sun. Long- period northeast swell will continue to impact the waters north and northeast of the Bahamas through Sat. Low pressure moving northeast from Central Cuba has a medium chance of tropical formation early next week over waters near South Florida and the northern and central Bahamas. Regardless of development, heavy rain and gusty winds are possible across South Florida and the Bahamas this weekend through early next week. $$ AReinhart