304 AXNT20 KNHC 231021 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Oct 23 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Epsilon is centered near 33.1N 61.6W at 23/0900 UTC or 170 nm ENE of Bermuda moving N at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Tropical storm-force winds are within 210 nm of the center in the E semicircle, 120 nm SW quadrant, and 180 nm NW quadrant. Seas 12 feet or greater are noted within 600 nm of the center in the NE and SW quadrants, 480 nm NW quadrant, and 360 nm SE quadrant with seas to 26 feet. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is located from 30N to 40N between 55W and 65W. High surf continues to affect Bermuda. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml; and the Forecast/Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W from 17N southward, moving westward 10 knots. No significant convection is occurring in association with this wave as it crosses the Cabo Verde Islands this morning. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 48W, from 14N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is located from 06N to 12N between 45W and 54W. A very weak Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is crossing the Lesser Antilles this morning, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 13N within 500 nm east of the tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast Guinea-Bissau near 12N15W to 06N22W. The ITCZ axis is from 05N30W to 07N41W to 06N54W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring along the entire monsoon trough from 02N to 08N and along the ITCZ from 02N to 08N between 30W and 34W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from 23N95W to the Yucatan Peninsula near 20N90W. No significant convection is occurring the the Gulf. Gentle easterly winds cover most of the basin, but moderate to fresh winds are occurring within about 200 nm of the coast of Florida. Moderate to fresh easterly winds will persist over the eastern Gulf through Sat. Low pressure may track northeastward from western Cuba across the extreme SE Gulf and Florida Straits Sun. This low has a low chance of tropical formation. Regardless of development, heavy rain is possible over western Cuba and South Florida into early next week. A weak cold front will move into the NW Gulf Sat morning, weaken further into a surface trough from the northern Florida into the SW Gulf Sat night, then stall from South Florida to just north of the Yucatan by Sun night. Gentle to moderate return flow will establish across the basin on Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see Tropical Waves section above for details on the tropical wave moving west across the Lesser Antilles this morning. A surface trough extends from the Yucatan peninsula near 20N88W to 15N82W to the coast of Costa Rica near 10N84W. A 1011 mb low pressure center has formed along this trough, south of the Cayman Islands, near 18N82W. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted from 15N to 20N between 74W and 83W. This activity is bringing heavy rain and gusty winds to portions of the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti. The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends across Panama through the extreme SW Carribbean, and to the north coast of Colombia near 11N73W. Scattered moderate convection is within 100 nm to the south of the monsoon trough from 80W eastward. The aforementioned low pressure in the NW Caribbean may strengthen through Sat when it should reach northward into central or western Cuba, and there is a low chance of tropical formation during this time. Regardless of development, heavy rain and gusty winds could impact the Cayman Islands, Cuba, and adjacent waters through the weekend. Winds and seas will increase east of the Windward Islands and in the E Caribbean on Sat through Tue, ahead of a tropical wave near 48W this morning, that will approach the Lesser Antilles by the start of next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Epsilon located NE of Bermuda. Please see Tropical Waves section above for information on two tropical waves crossing the Atlantic. In the central Atlantic near 35N38W a 1031 mb high pressure center is dominating weather for much of the eastern Atlantic. Scattered moderate convection has developed from 20N to 28N between 48W and 58W. Scattered convection, loosely associated with low pressure in the northwest Caribbean is also impacting waters near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the SE and central Bahamas. Hurricane Epsilon is expected to to accelerate northeastward through Sat, then become extratropical east of Newfoundland Sun. The gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and Hurricane Epsilon will maintain strong winds and large seas over the western waters through tonight. Long-period northeast swell will continue to impact the waters north and northeast of the Bahamas through Sat. Low pressure moving northeast from Central Cuba has a medium chance of tropical formation early next week over waters near South Florida and the northern and central Bahamas. Regardless of development, heavy rain and gusty winds are possible across South Florida and the Bahamas this weekend through early next week. $$ KONARIK