000 AXNT20 KNHC 230557 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Oct 23 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Hurricane Epsilon, at 23/0300 UTC, is near 32.6N 61.6W. This position is also about 165 nm/300 km to the E of Bermuda. EPSILON is moving toward the NNW, or 345 degrees, 08 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 75 knots with gusts to 90 kt. Tropical storm-force winds are within 180 nm of the center in the N semicircle, within 210 nm of the center in the SE quadrant, and within 120 nm of the center in the SW quadrant. The sea heights of 12 feet or greater are within 600 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, within 360 nm of the center in the SE quadrant, within 560 nm of the center in the SW quadrant, and within 480 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea heights are reaching 27 feet. Precipitation: scattered to numerous moderate to strong is within 60 nm on either side of the line that runs from 25N49W to 24N53W to 22N56W...from 675 nm to 780 nm to the SE of the center. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 300 nm of the center in the N semicircle, and from 16N to 22N between 55W and 62W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere within 700 nm of the center in the S semicircle. The hazards affecting the land in Bermuda are: wind and surf. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml; and the Forecast/Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 23W/24W from 17N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: any nearby precipitation is more connected to the monsoon trough and the ITCZ. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 45W/46W, from 14N southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous moderate to strong is from 07N to 11N within 120 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and from 07N to 11N within 280 nm to the west of the tropical wave. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 58W/59W, from 16N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate, to isolated to widely scattered strong is from 07N to 13N within 500 nm to the east of the tropical wave. Isolated moderate to locally strong is within 330 nm to the west of the tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal, along 10N14N, curving to 07N18W, to 05N23W. The ITCZ is along 05N25W 05N34W 07N38W 07N44W, and from 06N47W to 06N56W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is from 02N to 08N between 14W and 34W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 20N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from 23N95W in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, across the northern sections of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, to 17N83W in the Caribbean Sea, to the SE coast of Nicaragua. The GFS model shows broad 250 mb anticyclonic wind flow from 70W westward. The GFS model for 500 mb and for 700 mb shows broad cyclonic wind flow from 70W westward. Precipitation: Isolated moderate is from 94W eastward. Moderate to fresh easterly winds will persist in the eastern Gulf of Mexico through Saturday. A weak cold front will move into the NW Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, reach from central Florida to southern Texas on Saturday night, and then stall and dissipate on Sunday. Gentle to moderate return flow will establish across the basin on Monday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from 23N95W in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, across the northern sections of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, to 17N83W in the Caribbean Sea, to the SE coast of Nicaragua. The GFS model shows broad 250 mb anticyclonic wind flow from 70W westward. The GFS model for 500 mb and for 700 mb shows broad cyclonic wind flow from 70W westward. Precipitation: scattered to numerous moderate, and widely scattered to scattered strong is from 17N to 20N between 77W and 83W. Scattered to numerous strong is from 14N to 18N between 73W and 74W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 24N southward from 70W westward, including in parts of the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico, and in the rest of that part of the Caribbean Sea. The monsoon trough is along 09N/11N, from 73W in northern Colombia, beyond Costa Rica. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 13N southward from 75W westward, in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is within 100 nm to the south of the monsoon trough from 80W eastward. A trough of low pressure in the northwest Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized thunderstorms in much of the western and northwestern sections of the Caribbean Sea. It is possible that the trough may develop more, during the next several days. The potential for development is low, near Cuba, toward the end of the weekend. It is possible that heavy rain and gusty winds may impact Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, Cuba, and adjacent waters, into early next week. The wind speeds and the sea heights will increase to the east of the Windward Islands and in the E Caribbean Sea, from Saturday through Monday, as a tropical wave, currently near 44W, moves across the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from 23N95W in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, across the northern sections of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, to 17N83W in the Caribbean Sea, to the SE coast of Nicaragua. The GFS model shows broad 250 mb anticyclonic wind flow from 70W westward. The GFS model for 500 mb and for 700 mb shows broad cyclonic wind flow from 70W westward. Precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 24N southward from 70W westward, including in parts of the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico, and in the rest of that part of the Caribbean Sea. Hurricane Epsilon near 32.6N 61.6W 968 mb at 11 PM EDT moving NNW at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt. Epsilon will move to 33.8N 61.6W Fri morning and continuing moving northward away from the area and Bermuda this weekend. Epsilon is expected to become extratropical near 48.4N 41.0W Sun evening, then dissipate late on Monday, well to the east of Atlantic Canada. The gradient between the western Atlantic Ocean high pressure and Hurricane Epsilon will maintain strong winds and large seas in the western waters through Friday. Long-period northeast swell will continue to impact the waters to the north and northeast of the Bahamas, through early Saturday. $$ mt