000 AXNT20 KNHC 221730 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Oct 22 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Hurricane Epsilon, at 22/1500 UTC, is near 30.9N 61.2W, about 204 nm ESE of Bermuda, moving NW at 6 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb. The maximum sustained wind speed is 80 knot with gusts to 100 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 200 nm in the N semicircle. The sea heights of 12 feet or greater are within 630 nm in the NE quadrant, 360 nm in the SE quadrant, 510 nm in the SW quadrant, and 510 nm in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea heights are reaching 35 ft. Epsilon will take a turn toward the north- northwest later today, followed by a northward motion tonight through Friday night, and an acceleration toward the northeast over the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach to, but well to the east of, Bermuda later this evening. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next couple of days, with weakening by early next week. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 20W, from 17N southward, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N-08N between 18W-21W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W, from 12N southward, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N-12N between 41W-45W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W, from 18N southward, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N-11N between 52W-57W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal near 11N15W to 09N18W. The ITCZ starts west of a tropical wave near 06N21W to 06N41W, then continues west of another tropical wave near 06N44W to the coast of French Guiana near 04N52W. Scattered moderate convection is within 250 nm of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A mid-level trough is approaching the NW Gulf. Isolated thunderstorms are noted along the middle Texas coast in addition to portions of the central Gulf. A 1008 mb low is in the Bay of Campeche near 20N91W with a trough extending from that low to 23N95W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are noted across the Gulf. Seas are averaging 3-6 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly winds will persist over the eastern Gulf through Sat. A weak cold front will move into the NW Gulf by Sat, reach from central Florida to southern Texas Sat night, then stall and dissipate on Sun. Gentle to moderate return flow is expected across the basin on Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1009 mb low is off the Yucatan coast near 19N86W with a trough extending along the low from 19N88W to 11N80W. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the western and central Caribbean from 12N-22N between 71W-83W. Isolated thunderstorms are noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Showers are passing across the southern Lesser Antilles. A 1009 mb low is in the SW Caribbean near 10N77W with the monsoon trough extending westward to the Costa Rica coast near 09N82W. Moderate to fresh trades are in the central Caribbean with light to gentle trades elsewhere. Seas are averaging 3-6 ft. Troughing across the western Caribbean extending from the low near Cozumel will continue to provide widespread showers and thunderstorms over the NW Caribbean through the weekend. Winds and seas will increase east of the Windward Islands and in the E Caribbean on Sat through early next week as a tropical wave, currently near 44W, moves across the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Outside of Hurricane Epsilon, a trough over the Florida east coast is bringing scattered moderate convection to portions of northern Florida and South Florida. A trough extends south of Epsilon from 28N61W to 21N72W with no significant convection. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is to the east of Epsilon from 19N-30N between 44W-56W. Otherwise, surface ridging extends across the rest of the basin anchored by a 1033 mb high, east of the Azores, near 38N41W. Moderate easterly winds are in the western Atlantic off the coasts of Florida and the Bahamas. Seas are averaging 6-8 ft in this area. Moderate to fresh ENE winds are noted in the central and eastern Atlantic with seas averaging 6-9 ft. Hurricane Epsilon will move north of the area to 31.6N 61.1W this afternoon. The gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and Hurricane Epsilon will maintain strong winds and large seas over the western waters through Fri. Long- period northeast swell will continue to impact the waters north and northeast of the Bahamas through late Sat. $$ AReinhart