000 AXNT20 KNHC 220534 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Oct 22 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Hurricane Epsilon, at 22/0300 UTC, is near 29.6N 60.6W. This position is also about 270 nm/500 km to the SE of Bermuda. EPSILON is moving toward the WNW, or 285 degrees, 07 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 100 knots with gusts to 120 kt. Tropical storm-force winds are within 300 nm of the center in the N semicircle, and within 120 nm to 150 nm of the center in the S semicircle. The sea heights of 12 feet or greater are within 480 nm of the center in the NW and SE quadrants, and within 680 nm of the center in the NE and SW quadrants. The maximum sea heights are reaching 38 feet. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 120 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, and from 27N to 30N between 46W and 51W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate and isolated strong is within 300 nm of the center in the SW quadrant, and within 460 nm of the center in the SE quadrant. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml; and the Forecast/Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W/39W, from 16N southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is within 200 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and within 275 nm to the west of the tropical wave. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 51W/52W, from 19N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 240 nm on either side of the tropical wave, from 09N 13N. Isolated moderate is from 16N to 20N between 48W and 53W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal, along 14N, curving to 12N20W. The ITCZ is along 06N/08N between 13W and 36W, and from 05N39W to 02N48W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong from 08N to 10N between 43W and 47W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 240 nm to the south of the ITCZ between 24W and 29W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 20N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough is on top of Florida. The GFE model for 250 mb and for 500 mb show this trough. The same trough was in the eastern Gulf of Mexico 24 hours ago. Precipitation: Rainshowers are possible in Florida. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated to widely scattered moderate are from 70W westward. NE-to-E winds, 15 to 20 knots, are in the Atlantic Ocean from Cuba and 20N northward from 70W westward. Abundant moisture is in the same region also. Fresh to strong easterly winds will continue in the eastern Gulf of Mexico overnight. Fresh easterly winds will persist in the eastern Gulf of Mexico through Saturday. A weak cold front will move into the NW Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, reach from central Florida to southern Texas on Saturday night, and then stall and dissipate on Sunday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from 22N95W in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, to a 1006 mb low pressure center that is along 20N at the coast of the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, into the Caribbean Sea near 17N83W, and to 13N78W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the coastal waters, from 94W in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, to the northern parts of the Yucatan Peninsula and to the Yucatan Channel. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong in clusters is within 430 nm to the northeast of the Caribbean Sea surface trough from Haiti westward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is between 67W and 73W. Isolated moderate is from 11N northward to the trough from 78W westward. The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N, from 73W in northern Colombia, beyond Costa Rica. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the waters from the monsoon trough southward between 79W and 81W. Scattered moderate to strong in clusters is in Colombia from 06N to 08N between 73W and 78W, and from 08N to 10N between the Colombia/Venezuela border and 74W. The current western Caribbean Sea surface trough is producing widespread rainshowers and thunderstorms to the north of 16N in the west central Caribbean Sea. The wind speeds and the sea heights will increase to the east and southeast of the Windward Islands on Saturday, from a tropical wave that will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea during the upcoming weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough is on top of Florida. The GFE model for 250 mb and for 500 mb show this trough. The same trough was in the eastern Gulf of Mexico 24 hours ago. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated to widely scattered moderate are from 70W westward. NE-to-E winds, 15 to 20 knots, are in the Atlantic Ocean from Cuba and 20N northward from 70W westward. Abundant moisture is in the same region also. Hurricane Epsilon near 29.6N 60.6W 953 mb at 11 PM EDT moving WNW at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds 100 kt gusts 120 kt. Epsilon will move to 30.5N 61.4W Thu morning, then north of the area on Thursday. The gradient between western Atlantic Ocean high pressure and Hurricane Epsilon will maintain strong winds and large seas in the western waters through Friday. Long-period northeast swell will continue to impact the waters to the north and northeast of the Bahamas, through late Saturday. $$ mt