000 AXNT20 KNHC 212317 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Oct 21 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Hurricane Epsilon is near 29.6N 60W at 21/2100 UTC, or about 340 nm ESE of Bermuda, moving WNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure has lowered to 955 mb. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Tropical storm-force winds extend as far as 390 nm in the NE quadrant and 300 nm in the NW quadrant, 120 nm in the S semicircle. Wave heights of 12 feet or greater extend up to 720 nm from the center in the NE quadrant, 360 nm SE quadrant, 450 nm se quadrant and 480 nm NW quadrant with maximum wave heights up to 37 ft. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm of the center. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is in bands out to 660 nm from the center in the E semicircle and 210 nm in the W semicircle. The hurricane is forecast to turn toward the north-northwest or north by Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach to Bermuda Thursday afternoon or evening. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W from 01N-15N, moving W at 20 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is within 200 nm either side of the wave axis from 02N-10N. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 49W from 03N-18N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 220 nm east side of the wave axis, 180 nm west side of the wave axis, and scattered moderate convection in the northern section of the wave from 14N-19N between 46W-52W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Senegal near 14N16W to 12N20W. The ITCZ is along 06/07N between 20W-32W, along 05/06N between 38W-47W, and along 09N between 51W-57W. Aside from the convection mentioned above in the Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted along the ITCZ from 02N-07N between 21W-27W and from 05N-10N between 38W-47W. Scattered showers are seen in the vicinity of the monsoon trough East of 23W. GULF OF MEXICO... A broad 1008 mb low pressure is near Cozumel Mexico with a trough That extends across the Yucatan Peninsula to the SW Gulf near 22N95W. A 1024 mb high pressure is centered over North Carolina. The gradient between the high and the low is currently producing fresh E winds over the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico, mainly north of 23N and east of 94W. These winds will continue through tonight. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through Sun. Currently, enhanced moisture and upper-level diffluence over southern Florida and the Florida Straits are enhancing scattered showers and isolated tstorms over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, mainly east of 85W. The combination of high pressure over the eastern United States and western Atlantic with broad low pressure over western Caribbean will support fresh to strong easterly winds over the eastern Gulf through early Thu. Mainly fresh easterly winds will persist over the eastern Gulf through Sat. A weak cold front will move into the NW Gulf Sat, then reach from west-central Florida to southern Texas late Sat and become stationary. Gentle to moderate northerly winds will follow in behind the front on Sat. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will continue elsewhere across the area through early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from a 1008 mb low just west of Cozumel Mexico near 20N87W to a 1008 mb low in the SW Caribbean near 15N81W to 11N80W. This entire system is a broad, weak trough of low pressure. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 13N-21N between 68W-82W and impacting Hispaniola, Jamaica, the Cayman Island and Cuba. Scattered showers and tstorms prevail elsewhere across the western and central Caribbean between 67W-72W. A recent ASCAT pass shows moderate to fresh SE winds north of the trough to the coast of Cuba and Jamaica. Light to gentle winds are west of the trough in the Gulf of Honduras. Troughing across the western Caribbean will persist over the next few days, and any development is expected to be slow to occur. Winds and seas are expected to increase east and southeast of the Windward Islands on Sat due to a tropical wave that is currently well east of the Windward Islands. The wave will move across the eastern Caribbean late Sat into early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Abundant moisture and upper-level diffluence over Florida and the Bahamas region are leading to scattered moderate showers and isolated tstorms over the entire area west of 72W from 24N-33N. Similar convection is seen north of Hispaniola, mainly south of 21N between 68W-72W. ASCAT pass shows fresh E winds from 23N-32N between 69W-81W. Strong N winds associated with the circulation of Hurricane Epsilon are east of 69W and north of 25N. In the eastern Atlantic, a surface trough extends northeastward from 26N25W to beyond 30N10W. A plume of moisture about 160 nm wide extends from 24N22W to 30N10W and contains scattered showers. Fresh winds prevail north of the moisture plume. Major Hurricane Epsilon will move near 30.5N 60.9W late tonight, to near 31.8N 61.6W Thu afternoon, then move north of the area to near 33.0N 62.0W late Thu night. The gradient between strong high pressure over the western Atlantic and Hurricane Epsilon will maintain strong winds and large seas over the western waters through Fri. Long-period northeast to east swell will continue to impact the waters north and northeast of the Bahamas through late Sat. $$ MTorres