000 AXNT20 KNHC 211749 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Hurricane Epsilon is near 29.4N 59.7W at 21/1800 UTC, or about 320 nm ESE of Bermuda, moving WNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure has lowered to 959 mb. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt. Tropical storm-force winds extend as far as 380 nm in the N semicircle and 80 nm in the S semicircle. Wave heights of 12 feet or greater extend up to 750 nm from the center in the NE quadrant. The maximum wave heights are 32 ft. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm of the center. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is in bands out to 600 nm from the center in the E semicircle and 210 nm in the W semicircle. A turn toward the NW is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the N by Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach to Bermuda Thursday afternoon or evening. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 34W from 01N-16N, moving W at 20 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is within 150 nm either side of the wave axis from 06N-10N. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere within 270 nm E of the wave axis from 03N-10.5N. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 48W from 03N-19N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 120 nm either side of the wave axis from 14N-17N and from 07N-11.5N. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is estimated to be along 76W from 01N-18N, based on continuity, moving W at 10 kt. This tropical wave has been difficult to track during the last 24 hours. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 13N-21N between 71W-81W may be more related to the trough over the western Caribbean than to the tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W to 13N21W. The ITCZ is along 06/07N between 21W-32W, along 05/06N between 36W-46W, and along 08N between 50W-56W. Aside from the convection mentioned above in the Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is along and within 180 nm S of the ITCZ between 21W-26W. Scattered moderate convection is along and within 300 nm N of the ITCZ between 38W-46W, and within 180 nm N of the ITCZ between 50W-56W. GULF OF MEXICO... A broad 1008 mb low pressure is near Cozumel Mexico. A 1025 mb high pressure is centered near Asheville North Carolina. The gradient between the high and the low is currently producing fresh E winds over the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico, mainly north of 23.5N and east of 94W. These winds will continue through tonight. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through Sun. Currently, enhanced moisture and upper-level diffluence over southern Florida and the Florida Straits are enhancing scattered showers and isolated tstorms over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, mainly east of 86.5W. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from a 1008 mb low just west of Cozumel Mexico near 20N87.5W to a 1009 mb low in the SW Caribbean near 15N81W to 11N81.5W. This entire system is a broad, weak trough of low pressure. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 13N-21N between 71W-81W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms prevail elsewhere across the western and central Caribbean between 70W-87W. A recent ASCAT pass shows moderate SE winds between the trough and the coasts of Cuba and Jamaica. Moderate W winds are west of the trough in the Gulf of Honduras. The trough will drift westward over the next couple of days, enhancing shower and tstorm activity in the western Caribbean. Winds and seas are forecast to increase over the eastern Caribbean on Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Abundant moisture and upper-level diffluence over Florida and the Bahamas region are leading to scattered moderate showers and isolated tstorms over the entire area west of 75W from 20N-32N. Similar convection is seen north of Hispaniola, mainly south of 22N between 68W-72W. A surface trough extends from 22N58W to 21N63W to 21N67W. Scattered showers are along and within 90 nm S of the trough. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh E winds from 23N-32N between 69W-81W. Strong N winds associated with the circulation of Hurricane Epsilon are east of 69W and north of 25N. In the eastern Atlantic, a stationary front extends northeastward from 29N15W to beyond 32N11W. A plume of moisture about 150 nm wide extends from 29N15W to 25N33W to 30N48W and contains scattered showers. Fresh winds prevail north of the moisture plume. Gentle to moderate speeds are from 21N-26N between 15W-45W. Hurricane Epsilon will move to near 31N61W Thu morning and to near 34N62W Fri morning. The gradient between strong high pressure off the Mid-Atlantic U.S. coast and Hurricane Epsilon will maintain fresh to strong winds and large seas over the waters north of 25N between 69W-80W through Fri. Long-period northeast to east swell will impact the waters north and northeast of the Bahamas through Fri night. $$ Hagen