000 AXNT20 KNHC 210547 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Oct 21 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Hurricane Epsilon, at 21/0300 UTC, is near 28.5N 56.8W. EPSILON is moving toward the NW, or 310 degrees, 11 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 65 knots with gusts to 80 kt. Tropical storm-force winds are within 280 nm of the center in the N semicircle. The sea heights of 12 feet or greater are within 510 nm of the center in the N semicircle. The maximum sea heights are reaching 24 feet. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong in clusters is from 200 nm to 400 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, and from 300 nm to 400 nm of the center in the SE quadrant. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 250 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. A surface trough is along 29N48W 28N40W. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate to locally strong is from 23N northward between 40W and 50W. A surface trough is along 22N58W 20N63W 21N67W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 20N to 22N between 56W and 67W. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml; and the Forecast/Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 29W/30W, from 17N southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate to strong is within 240 nm to the east of the trough. Isolated moderate to locally strong is within 270 nm to the west of the trough. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 45W/46W, from 18N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 200 nm on either side of the tropical wave, from 13N to 21N. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W/74W, from 18N and SW Haiti southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate, and isolated to widely scattered strong, is within 520 nm to the NW of the tropical wave from 15N to Cuba. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal, along 14N from 17N to 20N. The ITCZ is along 05N/07N between 17W and 28W, from 03N to 05N between 30W and 42W, and from 06N to 07N between 45W and 53W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate, and isolated to widely scattered strong, is within 330 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between 31W and 40W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 14N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough is in the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico, along 87W. Abundant moisture in the eastern sections of the Gulf of Mexico, and NE surface winds in the Atlantic Ocean to the east of Florida, are helping to push clouds and precipitation into the Gulf of Mexico, from 90W eastward. Precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong covers the Gulf of Mexico from 90W eastward. High pressure in the eastern United States, and broad low pressure in the western Caribbean Sea, will support fresh to strong easterly winds in the eastern Gulf of Mexico overnight. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through Sunday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from 22N90W just to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula, to a NW Caribbean Sea 1006 mb low pressure center that is near 19N86W, to 16N83W, to the coast of Panama along 80W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 360 nm to the west of the surface trough, in Central America, from Panama to Honduras. Precipitation also is between the surface trough and the 73W/74W tropical wave. A tropical wave is along 73W/74W, from 18N and SW Haiti southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate, and isolated to widely scattered strong, is within 520 nm to the NW of the tropical wave from 15N to Cuba. The monsoon trough is along 09N/11N, from 75W at the coast of Colombia, beyond Costa Rica. The nearby precipitation is close to the 22N90W-to-Panama surface trough. A broad surface trough, in the western Caribbean Sea, from the Yucatan Channel to 12N80W, is producing scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms to the east of the trough. The trough will drift westward during the next couple of days. The rainshower and thunderstorm activity in the western Caribbean Sea will be enhanced. The wind speeds and the sea heights are expected to increase to the south of the Windward Islands on Saturday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... NE winds, 20 to 25 knots, are in the Atlantic Ocean from Cuba and 20N northward from 72W westward. Abundant moisture is in the same region also. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate to isolated strong covers the Atlantic Ocean from 75W westward, to Florida, and into the eastern sections of the Gulf of Mexico. A dissipating cold front passes through the coast of Morocco near 31N10W, to the Canary Islands. Broad surface low pressure covers the rest of the Atlantic Ocean from 28N northward from 27W eastward. Precipitation: scattered strong is from 25N to 26N between 30W and 32W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and widely scattered moderate to isolated strong are elsewhere from 24N northward from 40W eastward. Hurricane Epsilon near 28.5N 56.8W 987 mb at 11 PM EDT moving NW at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt. Epsilon will move to 29.2N 58.5W Wed morning, 29.9N 59.8W Wed evening, 31.0N 60.6W Thu morning, then north of the area on Thu. The gradient between the western Atlantic Ocean high pressure, and Hurricane Epsilon, will maintain strong winds and large seas in the western waters through Friday. Long-period northeast to east swell will impact the waters that are to the north and northeast of the Bahamas, through Friday night. $$ mt