000 AXNT20 KNHC 202311 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Oct 20 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Epsilon is centered near 27.9N 55.8W at 20/2100 UTC or 615 nm ESE of Bermuda moving NNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Seas are up to 24 ft, with 12 ft seas extending 540 nm NE quadrant, 150 nm SE quadrant, 360 nm SW quadrant, and 510 nm NW quadrant. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection extends outward 360 nm from the center in the NE quadrant, 180 nm SE quad, 80 nm SW quad and 180 nm NW quad. A NW motion with a slightly faster forward speed is forecast over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Epsilon is forecast to move closer to Bermuda on Thursday and make its closest approach to the island on Thursday night. Additional strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength by Thu. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and the Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 26W from from 01N-16N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 02N-12N between 24W- 29W. The Atlantic tropical extends from 43W, from 03N-17N, based on recent satellite data. The wave is moving W around 10 kt. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the wave axis north of 10N between 39W-45W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 72W from 05N-17N, moving W around 10 kt. SCattered moderate to strong convection is noted south of 14N between 67W-71W near the northern coast of Venezuela. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 11N16W to 10N17W. The ITCZ extends from 10N17W to 05N25W, then resumes W of a tropical wave from 05N29W to 07N41W to 08N41W, then west of a second wave from 08N45W to 10N57W. Aside from the convection mentioned above in the Tropical Waves section, scattered showers are near the ITCZ from 03N to 10N between 29W-35W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from 22N89W to a 1007 mb low just E of Cozumel Mexico near 20N86W. The pressure gradient between the low near Cozumel and a 1024 mb high over the SE U.S. near 35N83W is producing strong E winds across the eastern Gulf of Mexico from the Florida Straits to 87W and north of 23N to the Florida Panhandle. wave height of 9 ft was observed by buoy 42003 at 25.9N 85.6W. In the mid-levels, a mid-level low is present over and just east of the surface low near Cozumel. Abundant moisture and upper-level diffluence over the area are enhancing scattered moderate showers and isolated tstorms over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico mainly east of 89W. The combination between high pressure over the eastern United States and broad low pressure over western Caribbean will continue to support fresh to strong easterly winds and building seas over the southeastern Gulf through early Thu. Gentle to moderate winds under a weaker pressure gradient will prevail elsewhere through the forecast period. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from 22N89W to a 1007 mb low just E of Cozumel Mexico near 20N86W to another 1007 mb low in the SW Caribbean near 10N80W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection prevails across the entire western and central Caribbean, west of 72W. Scattered strong convection is occurring east of a tropical wave, from 11N-18N between 70W-74W. Comparatively drier air is seen over the remainder of the eastern Caribbean. A recent ASCAT pass shows mainly gentle to moderate trades across most of the basin, with locally fresh SE winds seen south of west-central Cuba. The large low pressure trough over the western Caribbean will drift westward over the next couple of days, enhancing shower and thunderstorm activity across the western Caribbean and adjacent land areas. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Epsilon and the Tropical Waves section for information on the two tropical waves in this basin. A surface trough extends from 21N58W to 21N67W. A tail of enhanced moisture is seen on TPW imagery extending from south of T.S. Epsilon, over the surface trough, and then continuing to 25N75W through the NW Bahamas to South Florida. Scattered moderate showers and tstorms prevail within 60 nm either side of the surface trough and moisture plume between 59W-81W. A recent ASCAT pass shows strong NE to E winds from 23N-30N between 63W- 74W. Fresh E winds are from 25N-32N between 74W-81W. Farther east, a surface trough extends from 27N34W to 25N46W. Isolated strong convection is from 23N-28N between 34W-40W. A 1035 mb surface high north of the area near 44N48W extends SE to 25N33W. The tail end of a cold front further east is dissipating from 30N11W to 27N17W near the Canary Islands. Moderate westerly winds are noted east of 18W. A surface trough extends west of the front from 27N18W to 26N26W. No significant convection is noted near the trough and the front. A recent ASCAT pass shows winds in excess of 25 kt associated with the circulation of T.S. Epsilon prevail across the basin from 21N-37N between 42W-63W. Tropical Storm Epsilon will strengthen to a hurricane near 28.8N 57.8W late tonight and continue to gradually strengthen as it reaches near 29.3N 59.6W Wed afternoon. The pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and Epsilon will maintain fresh to strong northeast to east winds over the western waters through Thu night. Northeast to east swell will impact the waters north and northeast of the Bahamas through Fri night before slowly subsiding Sat and Sat night. $$ MTorres