000 AXNT20 KNHC 201038 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Oct 20 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Epsilon is centered near 25.6N 54.7W at 20/0900 UTC or 660 nm SE of Bermuda moving ENE at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Seas are up to 23 ft, with 12 ft seas extending 540 nm NE quadrant, 60 nm SE quadrant, 270 nm SW quadrant, and 480 nm NW quadrant. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is north of 20N between 36W-58W. A turn toward the north and northwest is expected later today, with a general northwestward motion expected through Thursday. On the forecast track, Epsilon is forecast to approach Bermuda on Thursday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/ MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends across the east Atlantic with axis along 18N from 03N-17N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 04N-10N between 17W- 27W. An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 44W from 00N-14N, moving W at 10 kt. No significant convection is related to this wave at this time. An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 54W from 02N-17N, moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is related to this wave at this time. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 70W from 08N-19N, moving W at about 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted along and west of the wave axis mainly between 70W-73W. A western Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 87W from 20N southward, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the wave, affecting Central America at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 11N15W to 07N21W. The ITCZ continues from 07N21W to 07N42W, then resumes near 07N45W to 10N52W, then again from 10N55W to 10N60W. No significant convection is noted, aside from the convection mentioned above in the Tropical Waves section. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails over the western Gulf of Mexico anchored by high pressure over the SE U.S. A surface trough extends from the NW Caribbean over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is over the Straits of Florida and western Cuba. Fresh to strong easterly winds are noted in scatterometer data over the southeast while gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. The combination of high pressure over the eastern United States and broad low pressure over western Cuba and the far southeastern Gulf will continue supporting fresh to strong easterly winds and building seas through Wed over the southeast Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds under a weaker pressure gradient will prevail elsewhere through the forecast period. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information on the two tropical waves in this basin. A 1007 mb surface low in the SW Caribbean is located near 12N81W with a trough extending NW from the low to 24N87W. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the west-central Caribbean between 70W-84W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across the basin. Seas average between 3-5 ft, except 4-6 ft in the Yucatan Channel. The tropical wave over the western Caribbean will move inland over the Yucatan Peninsula and Central America today. The broad area of low pressure in the west-central Caribbean is forecast to move slowly westward toward the Yucatan peninsula over the next day or two. Expect unsettled weather over the western Caribbean and near the Yucatan Peninsula through Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Epsilon and the Tropical Waves section for information on the three tropical waves in this basin. Scattered showers prevail across the west Atlantic mainly west of 76W. Outside of T.S. Epsilon, moderate to fresh easterly winds were noted in earlier scatterometer data in the western Atlantic off the coast of Florida and the Bahamas with seas up to 9 ft. Seas are higher a little farther east and closer to Epsilon. Seas average 3-5 ft across the rest of the basin. Tropical Storm Epsilon near 25.6N 54.7W 998 mb at 5 AM EDT moving ENE at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt. Epsilon will move to 26.6N 55.6W this afternoon, 27.8N 57.4W Wed morning, 28.5N 59.1W Wed afternoon, 29.4N 60.1W Thu morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 30.6N 60.9W Thu afternoon, and 31.6N 61.4W Fri morning. Epsilon will change little in intensity as it moves to near 33.5N 62.0W by early Sat. The pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and Epsilon will maintain fresh to strong northeast to east winds over the western waters through Thu. Expect for northeast to east swell to impact the waters north and northeast of the Bahamas through the forecast period. $$ ERA