000 AXNT20 KNHC 200449 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Oct 20 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... At 20/0300 UTC, Tropical Storm Epsilon is centered near 25.3N 55.3W, or 651 miles SE of Bermuda, moving N at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Seas are up to 17 ft with 12 ft seas extending 390 nm in the N semicircle and 180 nm in the S semicircle. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 20N-29N between 45W-58W. Epsilon is drifting toward the north, and this general motion should continue tonight and early Tuesday. A northwestward motion is expected to begin by Tuesday afternoon and continue through midweek. On the forecast track, Epsilon is forecast to approach Bermuda on Thursday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/ MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave along the African coast is moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 04N-11N between 14W-26w. An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 43W from 15N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 11N-15N between 35W-42W. An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 51W from 17N southward, moving W at 10 kt. No significant convection is related to this wave at this time. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 69W from 18N southward, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over NW Venezuela from 08N-13N between 68W-74W. A western Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 86W from 25N southward, moving westward at 10 kt. Isolated moderate convection is within 180 nm of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 11N15W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 04N33W to 07N40W to 06N56W. No significant convection is noted, aside from the convection mentioned above in the Tropical Waves section. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails over the western Gulf of Mexico anchored by high pressure over the SE U.S. A tropical wave from the NW Caribbean extends over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is over the Straits of Florida and western Cuba. Moderate to fresh ENE winds are noted in the eastern Gulf with gentle to moderate SE winds in the western Gulf. The combination of high pressure over the eastern United States and broad low pressure over western Cuba and the far southeastern Gulf will continue to result in fresh to strong easterly winds and building seas through Wed. Gentle to moderate winds under a weaker pressure gradient will prevail elsewhere through the period. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for information on the two tropical waves in this basin. A 1007 mb low in the SW Caribbean is located near 13N80W with a trough extending NW to the NW Caribbean near 20N84W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted across the west-central Caribbean from 08N-22N between 73W-87W. Moderate trades are in the central Caribbean with light to gentle trades elsewhere. Seas average 3-5 ft, except 4-6 ft in the Yucatan Channel. A tropical wave over the western Caribbean near 86W will move inland over the Yucatan Peninsula and Central America early on Tue. The broad area of low pressure in the west-central Caribbean is forecast to move slowly westward toward the Yucatan peninsula over the next day or two. Expect unsettled weather over the western Caribbean and near the Yucatan Peninsula through Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Epsilon and the Tropical Waves section for information on the three tropical waves in this basin. A trough is analyzed in the central Atlantic from 28N37W to 25N55W. Isolated showers are along the trough axis. In the eastern Atlantic, a stationary front extends from 31N20W to 28N29W. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds are south of the stationary front. Scattered moderate convection is from 28N-32N between 14W-25W. Outside of T.S. Epsilon, moderate to fresh easterly winds were noted in earlier scatterometer data in the western Atlantic off the coast of Florida and the Bahamas with seas up to 9 ft. Seas are higher a little farther east and closer to Epsilon. Seas average 3-5 ft across the rest of the basin. Tropical Storm Epsilon will move to 26.1N 55.5W Tue morning, 27.5N 56.7W Tue evening, 28.3N 58.5W Wed morning, 29.1N 59.8W Wed evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 30.4N 60.8W Thu morning, and 31.3N 61.5W Thu evening. Epsilon will change little in intensity as it moves near 32.9N 62.5W by late Fri. The pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and Epsilon will maintain fresh to strong northeast to east winds over the western waters through most of Thu. Expect for northeast to east swell to impact the waters north and northeast of the Bahamas through the period. $$ Formosa