000 AXNT20 KNHC 192331 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Oct 19 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... At 19/2100 UTC, Tropical Storm Epsilon is centered near 25.5N 55.5W, or 635 miles SE of Bermuda, and is currently stationary. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Seas are up to 17 ft with 12 ft seas extending 390 nm in the N semicircle and 180 nm in the S semicircle. Scattered moderate convection is within 360 nm in the E semicircle and 120 nm in the W semicircle. A northwest or west-northwest motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through midweek. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength on Wednesday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and the Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave along the African coast is moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 04N-12N between 22W and the coast of Africa. An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 42W from 15N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 11N-15N between 36W-42W. An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 49/50W from 16N southward, moving W at 10 kt. No significant convection is related to this wave at this time. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 68W from 18N southward, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over NW Venezuela from 10N-12N between 69W-71W. A western Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 85W from 23N southward, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-24N between 73W-87W. Some of the convection in this area is due to a broad trough of low pressure, described below in the Caribbean section. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 11N15W to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W to 04N25W to 07N45W to 06N56W. No significant convection is noted, aside from the convection mentioned above in the Tropical Waves section. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails over the western Gulf of Mexico anchored by high pressure over the SE U.S. Surface troughing from the NW Caribbean extends over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Scattered to numerous showers and tstorms are over the western Florida Straits and western Cuba. Moderate to fresh ENE winds are noted in the eastern Gulf with gentle to moderate SE winds in the western Gulf. The combination of high pressure over the eastern United States and broad low pressure over western Cuba and the far southeastern Gulf will continue to result in fresh to strong easterly winds and building seas through Wed. Gentle to moderate winds under a weaker pressure gradient will prevail elsewhere through the period. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for information on the two tropical waves in this basin. A 1006 mb low in the SW Caribbean is located near 12N79W with a trough extending north of the low to just south of western Cuba near 21N83W. A 1009 mb low is at the N end of this trough near 21N83W. The monsoon trough extends off the 1006 mb low to the coast of Central America near the Panama/Costa Rica border. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted across the west-central Caribbean from 08N-22N between 73W-87W. Moderate trades are in the central Caribbean with light to gentle trades elsewhere. Seas average 3-5 ft, except 4-6 ft in the Yucatan Channel. A tropical wave over the western Caribbean near 85W will move inland over the Yucatan Peninsula and Central America early on Tue. The broad area of low pressure in the west-central Caribbean is forecast to move slowly westward toward the Yucatan peninsula over the next day or two. Expect unsettled weather over the western Caribbean and near the Yucatan Peninsula through Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Epsilon and the Tropical Waves section for information on the three tropical waves in this basin. A trough is analyzed in the central Atlantic from 21N42W to 15N47W. Isolated showers are along and N of the trough axis. In the eastern Atlantic, a stationary front extends from 31N20W to 29N34W. A surface trough extends from 29N34W to 26N48W. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds are south of the stationary front. Scattered moderate convection is from 28N-32N between 16W-26W. Scattered showers are elsewhere near the trough. Outside of T.S. Epsilon, moderate to fresh easterly winds were noted in earlier scatterometer data in the western Atlantic off the coast of Florida and the Bahamas with seas up to 9 ft. Seas are higher a little farther east and closer to Epsilon. Seas average 3-5 ft across the rest of the basin. Tropical Storm Epsilon will move to near 27N56W Tue afternoon, then strengthen to a hurricane near 29N59.5W Wed afternoon. Epsilon is forecast to reach near 31N61.5W Thu afternoon with maximum sustained winds near 75 kt. Epsilon will change little in intensity as it moves north of the area to near 33N63W by Fri afternoon. The pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and Epsilon will maintain fresh to strong northeast to east winds over the waters west of 70W through Thu. Expect for northeast to east swell to impact the waters north and northeast of the Bahamas through the period. $$ Hagen