000 AXNT20 KNHC 191705 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Oct 19 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1640 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Newly upgraded Tropical Storm Epsilon is centered near 25.6N 55.3W, or 639 miles SE of Bermuda, and is currently stationary. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas are up to 16 ft with 12 ft seas extending 300 nm in the northern semicircle and 60 nm in the SE quadrant. Scattered moderate convection is within 400 nm in the eastern semicircle and 140 nm within the NW quadrant. Epsilon is expected to have little overall motion through tonight. A slow west-northwestward to northwestward motion should begin on Tuesday, and this motion should continue through midweek. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength by early Thursday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml or more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 40W, from 16N southward, moving westward at 10 kt. No significant convection is related with this wave at this time. An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 48W, from 16N southward, moving westward at 10 kt. No significant convection is related to this wave at this time. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 67W, from 18N southward, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection is related to this wave at this time. A western Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 84W, from 23N southward, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted west of the wave's axis from 15N-22N between 82W-84W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 05N25W. The ITCZ continues from 05N25W to 07N39W, then continues west of a tropical wave from 07N41W to 06N48W. The last section of ITCZ continues west of another tropical wave near 06N49W to just north of Suriname near 06N56W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted near the monsoon trough from 02N-11N between 09W-22W. Isolated convection is noted within 50 nm of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging continues to sprawl across the Gulf of Mexico anchored by high pressure over the SE U.S. Isolated thunderstorms are noted in the south-central Gulf. Moderate to fresh ENE winds are noted in the eastern Gulf with gentle to moderate SE winds in the western Gulf. Seas average 3 to 6 ft with upwards of 7-8 ft in the eastern Gulf. A surface ridge will continue building across the Gulf waters. The pressure gradient will continue to tighten across the eastern Gulf, resulting in fresh to strong easterly winds and building seas. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for information on the two tropical waves in this basin. A 1006 mb low in the SW Caribbean is located near 12N79W with a trough extending north of the low to just south of western Cuba near 21N82W. The monsoon trough extends off the low to the coast of Costa Rica near 09N80W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted across the west-central Caribbean from 09N- 22N between 73W-74W. Moderate trades are in the central Caribbean with light to gentle trades elsewhere. Seas average 3- 5 ft. A tropical wave over the western Caribbean will move inland the Yucatan Peninsula and Central America early on Tue. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the wave. A broad area of low pressure is likely to form in a couple of days over the southwestern Caribbean. Some gradual development of this system is possible late this week while it moves slowly northwestward or north- northwestward over the western Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Epsilon and the Tropical Waves section for information on the two tropical waves in this basin. A trough west of the Lesser Antilles is noted from 15N57W to 10N59W with no significant convection. Another trough is analyzed in the central Atlantic from 2N42W to 14N46W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring along and north of the trough from 18N-23N between 37W-44W. In the eastern Atlantic, a stationary front extends from 31N21W to a 1010 mb low near 30N33W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are noted south of this low in addition to moderate to locally fresh SW winds south of the stationary front. A trough extends westward to near 27N48W. Scattered moderate convection is along this system from 24N-30N between 19W-45W. Outside of T.S. Epsilon, moderate to fresh easterly winds are noted in the western Atlantic off the coast of Florida and the Bahamas with seas up to 9 ft. Seas average 3-5 ft across the rest of the basin. Recently formed Tropical Storm Epsilon will move to near 25.8N 55.1W this evening, to near 26.4N 55.4W early Tue with maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt, to near 27.6N 56.7W Tue evening with maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt, then continue to gradually intensify as it reaches near 28.3N 58.5W early Wed with maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt and strengthen to a hurricane near 29.1N 59.8W Wed evening with maximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt. Epsilon is forecast to reach near 30.2N 60.8W early Thu with maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt and to near 32.3N 62.7W early Fri. The pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and Epsilon will maintain fresh to strong northeast to east winds over the western waters through most of Thu. Expect for northeast to east swell to impact the waters north and northeast of the Bahamas through the period. $$ AReinhart