000 AXNT20 KNHC 191017 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Oct 19 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1003 mb low is near 26N56W, or about 600 nm SE of Bermuda. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 24N to 30N between 47W and 56W. Showers and thunderstorms activity has increased overnight. Although environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive for development during the next day or so, a subtropical or tropical depression could still develop later today or on Tuesday. However, upper-level winds are forecast to become more favorable for tropical cyclone formation by late Tuesday and Wednesday while the low meanders well to the southeast of Bermuda. In the meantime, there is a gale warning in effect for the system. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook and the High Seas Forecast product for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 37W, from 15N southward, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N-18N between 34W-40W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 47W, from 18N southward, moving westward at 10 kt. No significant convection is related to this wave at this time. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 67W, from 19N southward, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection is related to this wave at this time. A western Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 83W, from 22N southward, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted west of the wave's axis from 08N-18N between 83W-90W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 12N16W to 07N27W to 07N40W. The ITCZ continues from 07N40W to 07N46W, then resumes west of a tropical wave near 06N49W to 05N53W. Scattered moderate convection is along the monsoon trough mainly east of 22W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure centered in the Carolinas continues to build southwestward into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds are occurring over the eastern Gulf with gentle to moderate southeasterly winds in the western Gulf. Seas average 3 to 6 ft. A surface ridge will continue building across the Gulf waters. The pressure gradient will tighten across the eastern Gulf, resulting in fresh to strong easterly winds and building seas. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for information on the two tropical waves in this basin. The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends through Panama to a 1006 mb low near 11N77W. With this, scattered moderate convection prevails south of 12N between 76W-83W. To the northwest scattered moderate convection prevails over Cuba and Jamaica mainly north of 17N between 75W-80W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades north of Colombia and Venezuela, while light to gentle trades prevail elsewhere. Seas average 3-6 ft with up to 7 ft north of Colombia. A tropical wave moving across the W Caribbean will reach the Yucatan Peninsula late today enhancing winds and convection over the region. A broad area of low pressure is likely to form in a couple of days over the southwestern Caribbean. Some gradual development of this system is possible late this week as it moves slowly northwestward or north- northwestward over the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on the developing gales associated with a low pressure in the central Atlantic and the Tropical Waves section for information on the two tropical waves in this basin. Scattered showers prevail across the west Atlantic mainly west of 72W. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are occurring N and E of the low in the central Atlantic, with seas of 8 to 12 ft. A cold front is noted in the eastern Atlantic from 31N19W to 29N34W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the front. The pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and the Central Atlantic low will continue increasing winds and seas across the NE waters. Swell generated by this system is propagating across the waters E of the Bahamas, and will reach the Atlantic/Caribbean passages on Tue. $$ ERA