000 AXNT20 KNHC 181034 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Oct 18 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1006 mb low is near 29N56W, or about 475 nm ESE of Bermuda. Scattered moderate convection noted from 24N-30N between 51W-58W. The low continues to show little change in organization since yesterday. Gradual development is expected, and a subtropical depression or storm is very likely to form during the next day or two while the low meanders well to the southeast of Bermuda. The chance of formation during the next 48 hours is high. At this time, gale conditions are expected to begin on Mon night and follow the low as it moves northward. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook and the High Seas Forecast product for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is along 41W, from 20N southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is E of the wave axis from 13N-21N between 32W-37W. An E Caribbean tropical wave is along 63W, from 18N southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is related to this wave at this time. A west Caribbean tropical wave is along 79W, from 19N southward, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 10N between 77W-82W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through 11N16W to 08N21W to 07N38W. The ITCZ begins west of a tropical wave from 07N41W to 06N54W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N-14N between 21W-33W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from the Straits of Florida near 25N80W to 24N83W. Scattered showers are within 45 nm of the front over the Straits of Florida. High pressure is building across the basin. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh easterly winds across the eastern half of the basin, while gentle to moderate easterlies prevail west of 90W. High pressure will continue building across the basin producing moderate to fresh easterly winds over eastern Gulf and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves currently across the basin. The eastern Pacific monsoon trough passes along the coasts of northern Colombia westward to Panama and Costa Rica. Scattered moderate convection is seen south of 13N to include S Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across the basin, with locally fresh winds pulsing overnight south of 13N and within 200 nm south of Cuba. The tropical wave across the W Caribbean will continue moving west enhancing winds and convection over the area. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days over the southwestern Caribbean. Some gradual development of this system will be possible through the middle of next week while it moves slowly northwestward. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see sections above for details on low pressure to the southeast of Bermuda and the tropical wave moving across the basin. A stationary front extends from 31N70W to the Straits of Florida near 25N80W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 21N-29N between 73W-78W. To the east, a frontal boundary is approaching the northeast waters, supporting scattered showers north of 28N between 28W-48W. To the south, a surface trough is analyzed from 16N54W to 12N56W. Scattered showers are noted from 11N-18N between 48W-56W. The stationary front will dissipate on Mon. Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas are expected N of the front through the next 24 hours. The pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and the low will increase winds and seas across the NE waters beginning on tonight. $$ ERA