000 AXNT20 KNHC 180522 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Oct 18 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1006 mb low is near 28N56W, or about 520 nm ESE of Bermuda. A band of widely scattered moderate convection is near the low from 25N-33N between 53W-58W. Widely scattered moderate convection is also well E of the center from 23N-32N between 45W-50W. The low has shown little change in organization since earlier yesterday. Gradual development is expected, and a subtropical depression or storm is very likely to form during the next day or two while the low meanders well to the southeast of Bermuda. The chance of formation during the next 48 hours is high. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W, from 20N southward, moving westward at 15 knots. Widely scattered moderate convection is E of the wave axis from 07N-22N between 32W-38W. An E Caribbean tropical wave is along 63W, from 18N southward, moving westward at 15 knots. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis. A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 79W, from 18N southward, moving westward at 15 knots. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 300 mn of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through 12N16W to 08N20W to 09N30W to 07N39W. The ITCZ resumes west of a tropical wave from 07N41W to 05N54W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 06N-10N between 12W-17W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 02N-13N between 22W-32W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 18/0300 UTC, a dissipating stationary front extends from the Straits of Florida near 25N80W to 23N91W to 22N94W to the Bay of Campeche near 18N94W. Scattered showers are within 45 nm of the front over the Straits of Florida. The front will fully dissipate shortly W of 82W. High pressure will follow the front producing moderate to fresh easterly winds over eastern Gulf and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. CARIBBEAN SEA... The eastern Pacific monsoon trough passes along the coasts of northern Colombia westward to Panama and Costa Rica. Scattered moderate convection is seen south of 13N to include S Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama. A tropical wave moving across the central Caribbean will reach the W Caribbean this morning, and the Yucatan Peninsula by Tue morning. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of this system will be possible through the middle of next week while it moves slowly northwestward. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see Special Features section above for details on low pressure to the southeast of Bermuda. A stationary front extends from 31N70W to the Straits of Florida near 25N80W. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the front. The stationary front will dissipate today. Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas are expected N of the front through the next 24 hours. The pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and the Atlantic low will increase winds and seas across the NE waters beginning on Sun night. $$ Formosa