000 AXNT20 KNHC 171032 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Oct 17 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1009 mb low pressure center is near 31N56W, or about 500 nm ESE of Bermuda. A well defined band of moderate to strong convection wraps around the low center, within 150 nm of a line from 25N52W to 31N50W to 33N53W to 32N58W to 29N59W to 28N55W. The circulation center is becoming better organized. Additional development of this system is expected, and a subtropical depression or storm is likely to form during the next couple of days while the low meanders in the central Atlantic southeast of Bermuda. The chance of formation during the next 48 hours is high. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W, from 20N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 17N between 36W and 39W. A surface trough is along 51W, from 10N to 18N. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 10N to 16N between 47W and 51W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 58W/59W, from 16N southward, moving westward at 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 12N to 13N between 55W and 59W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W, from 20N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is from 17N to 18N between 69W and 71W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through 13N17W, to 09N22W, to 07N28W and 07N36W. The ITCZ is along 08N between 39W and 57W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 13N between 29W and 36W, and scattered moderate is found from 02N to 09N between 16W and 27W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through central Florida, to Tampa, to 25N91W, to 25N96W, to the coast of Mexico near 21N97W. The front then curves inland and northwestward in Mexico. Isolated showers are evident near the frontal boundary. The front will drift southward today, then stall and dissipate in the southeast Gulf on Sun. Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas are expected north of the front this morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad upper level trough extends northeastward from the tropical wave near 71W into the Atlantic Ocean, toward the 1009 mb low pressure center that is near 31N56W. The monsoon trough passes along the coasts of Costa Rica and Panama into northern Colombia. Scattered moderate to strong convection is near and along the trough axis, south of 11N between 76W and 83W. The tropical wave will continue to move across Hispaniola and the central Caribbean today, and reach eastern Cuba and Jamaica on Sun. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form early next week in the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of this system is possible through the middle of next week while it moves slowly in the western Caribbean Sea. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N75W, to coast of Florida near Cape Canaveral, and into into the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate showers are within 240 nm to the SE and 150 nm to the NE of the frontal boundary. A pre-frontal line of moderate to strong convection is noted within 60 nm of 28N71W to 26N75W to 23N78W. The cold front near central Florida will move eastward today, then stall and dissipate on Sun. Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas are expected N of the front through tonight. The low pressure system about 500 miles east-southeast of Bermuda could become a subtropical depression or storm during the next couple of days as it meanders over the central Atlantic. The gradient between high pressure to the north and the low will increase winds and seas across the NE waters Sun through Wed. $$ Mundell