000 AXNT20 KNHC 170600 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Oct 17 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1011 mb low pressure center is near 31N55W, or about 500 nm to the east of Bermuda. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated to widely scattered strong is from 90 nm to 180 nm of the center in the north quadrant, from 150 nm to 435 nm of the center in the east quadrant. Isolated moderate to locally strong is within 180 nm of the center in the western quadrant. The sea heights are forecast to range from 8 feet to 9 feet around the low pressure center in about 12 hours. The circulation center is becoming comparatively better organized. The precipitation that is around the low pressure center is becoming comparatively more organized. Additional development of this system is expected. It is likely for a subtropical depression to form during the next few days, while the low meanders well to the southeast of Bermuda. The chance of formation during the next 48 hours is medium. Please, read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W/37W, from 20N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate to strong in clusters is within 400 nm to the east of the tropical wave. A surface trough is along 50W/51W, from 10N to 18N. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate to strong is within 240 nm to the east of the trough. Isolated moderate to locally strong is within 270 nm to the west of the trough. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W/58W, from 16N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 120 nm to 180 nm on either side of the tropical wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W, from 20N and the Dominican Republic southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 600 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 14N to 20N, and within 600 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 17N to 20N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal near 13N17W, to 10N21W, curving to 07N30W and 07N35W. The ITCZ is along 08N/09N between 37W and 56W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere within 420 nm to the south of the monsoon trough from 31W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through NE Florida, to 29N along the Florida west coast, to 27N90W, to 25N97W, to the coast of Mexico near 22N98W. The front curves northwestward, and inland, in Mexico. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally strong covers the Gulf of Mexico from 26N southward between 82W and 90W. The current cold front will reach from central Florida to Veracruz in Mexico on Saturday, and then stall and dissipate in the SE Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas are expected to the north of the front through Saturday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W, from 20N and the Dominican Republic southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 600 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 14N to 20N, and within 600 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 17N to 20N. A broad upper level trough extends from the tropical wave near 15N northeastward, into the Atlantic Ocean, toward the 1011 mb low pressure center that is near 31N55W. The GFS model for 500 mb shows an inverted trough, that extends from Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua, northeastward to NW Cuba. Precipitation: isolated moderate covers the rest of the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from 15N northward from Jamaica westward. The monsoon trough passes through 11N just to the north of Lake Maracaibo in NW Venezuela, to the coast of Panama along 79W, to Nicaragua near 12N85W, beyond 10N87W in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate to strong in clusters is from 15N southward from 80W westward in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate to strong is along the coast of Colombia from 11N to 12N between 73W and 74W, and in the Gulf of Uraba of Colombia. A tropical wave will move across Hispaniola and the central Caribbean Sea overnight. The tropical wave will reach eastern Cuba and Jamaica on Sunday. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form early next week in the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of this system is possible through the middle of next week, while it moves slowly through the western Caribbean Sea. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N79W, to NE Florida, and beyond it, into the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong covers the area that extends from Cuba near 22N to 27N between 74W and 80W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate, and locally strong, is elsewhere within 500 nm to the E and SE of the cold front. A second surface trough curves along 23N42W 28N41W 32N42W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 31N northward between 40W and 44W. A 1016 mb low pressure center is near 31N26W. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally strong is from 28N northward between 20W and 32W. The current cold front, that is moving off the SE coast of the U.S.A., will extend from 31N73W to South Florida on Saturday, and then it will stall and dissipate on Sunday. Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas are expected to the north of the front this weekend. It is possible that a broad non-tropical low pressure system, that is located about 600 miles to the east-southeast of Bermuda, may become a subtropical or tropical depression during the next few days, as it meanders in the central Atlantic Ocean. The gradient, between high pressure to the north and the low pressure center, will increase winds and seas in the NE waters from Sunday through Wednesday. $$ mt