402 AXNT20 KNHC 162235 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Oct 16 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1013 mb centered near 31N55W, or about 500 nm east of Bermuda, is becoming better organized as it drifts to the SSW. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are observed within 150 nm in the north quadrant of the low pressure, and from 150 to 240 nm in a band in the eastern quadrant of the low. Scatterometer satellite data from earlier today indicated the surface is becoming better organized, with winds to near 25 kt in the band to the north and east of the low. Seas are estimated to be near 8 ft in this area. A cold- core mid/upper low is well stacked vertically above the surface low. Additional development of this system is expected, and there is a medium chance subtropical or tropical depression could form during the next couple of days while the low meanders over the central Atlantic well to the southeast of Bermuda. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W from 04N-20N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 14N-17N between 30W-32W. The tropical wave is analyzed along 56W from central Suriname to 15N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N-14N between 52W-55W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 69W, from northeast Venezuela to eastern Dominican Republic, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered to numerous convection is evident from 16N-18N between 63W-67W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W to 05N35W. The ITCZ is from 05N37W to 06N44W to 09N51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-10N between 25W-35W. GULF OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong NE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas follow a cold front reaching from the Florida Big Bend to Brownsville, Texas. Gentle to moderate NE winds and 3 to 5 ft are noted elsewhere. A few showers and thunderstorm are noted from southwest Florida to the northeast Yucatan Peninsula, following a pre- frontal trough moving across Florida. The cold front will reach from northern Florida to Tampico Mexico tonight, and from South Florida to the Bay of Campeche by Sat morning, then stall and dissipate in the SE Gulf on Sun. Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas are expected north of the front through Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... Rich, deep-layer moisture in the wake of the tropical wave over the eastern Dominican Republic and the influence of an upper trough are supporting showers and thunderstorms across mainly the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. The associated heavy rainfall is presenting the risk of flash floods and mudslides across Puerto Rico, diminishing through early Sat as the moisture shunts westward. Scattered showers are also active over the northwest Caribbean north of Honduras due a mid level trough in the area. This pattern, along with trade wind convergence, is supporting a line of showers and thunderstorms from eastern Panama to Providencia Island, to northeastern Nicaragua. Moderate SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted over the eastern Caribbean, and gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are evident farther west. The tropical wave over the eastern Dominican Republic will move across the remainder of Hispaniola and the central Caribbean tonight and Sat reaching eastern Cuba and Jamaica on Sun. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form early next week over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of this system will be possible through the middle of next week while it moves slowly over the southwestern or western Caribbean Sea. See the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook for more details. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A pre-frontal surface trough extends from 30N78W across South Florida to 25N81W in the far southeast Gulf of Mexico. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are active within 210 nm to the southeast of the trough. Weak high pressure is noted farther east, between the trough and the developing low pressure near 31N55W. Moderate to fresh trade winds are noted south of the high pressure, south of 22N and west of 65W with 4 to 6 ft seas. Light to gentle breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas are noted elsewhere west of 65W. For the forecast west of 65W, a cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast tonight, extend from 31N73W to South Florida by Sat morning, then stall and dissipate on Sun. Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas are expected north of the front this weekend. For early next week, much depends on the development and track of the low pressure currently near 31N55W. The gradient between the low center and high pressure to the north will increase winds and seas across the NE waters Sun night into Mon, with the possibility of large swell covering much of the western Atlantic by mid week. Elsewhere farther east, 1019 mb high pressure is centered near 27N29W. This is supporting moderate trade winds south of 20N across most of the tropical Atlantic, with 4 to 6 ft seas. This pattern is also supporting light to gentle breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas north of 20N. $$ Christensen