000 AXNT20 KNHC 160603 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Oct 16 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 29W/30W, from 18N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated to widely scattered strong is within 360 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and within 240 nm to the west of the tropical wave. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W/56W, from 16N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: little to no precipitation is directly related to the tropical wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 66W/67W, from 19N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to scattered moderate and isolated strong is within 600 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 13N to 20N. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 500 nm to the west of the tropical wave, from 14N to 20N. A tropical wave is along 95W/96W from 21N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots, through the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: no significant deep convective precipitation is in the Gulf of Mexico. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal near 13N17W, to 10N20W, and to 07N29W. The ITCZ is along 03N/05N between 31W and 45W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 300 nm to the north of the monsoon trough and the ITCZ between 20W and 30W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 20N southward from 60W eastward. A surface trough is along 14N44W 09N47W 04N50W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is 06N to 15N between 43W and the 55W/56W tropical wave. GULF OF MEXICO... The surface pressure pattern is flat and weak in the Gulf of Mexico. A frontal boundary currently is within 60 nm to 120 nm of the coast of Texas. An upper level trough is moving into the central Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the Gulf of Mexico, within 150 nm to the NW of NW Cuba. Isolated moderate is in the Straits of Florida, under a deep layer ridge. A tropical wave is along 95W/96W from 21N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots, through the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: no significant deep convective precipitation is in the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico early on Friday. The front will extend from the Tampa Florida metropolitan area to Tampico Mexico on Friday evening, and then stall and dissipate in the SE Gulf of Mexico by Sunday. Fresh to occasionally strong NE winds, and building seas, are expected to the north of the front, through Saturday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad upper level trough continues to extend across the Caribbean Sea in an east-to-west sense. The westernmost part of the upper level trough reaches Central America from Nicaragua/Honduras and to Guatemala and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. A tropical wave is along 66W/67W, from 19N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to scattered moderate and isolated strong is within 600 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 13N to 20N. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 500 nm to the west of the tropical wave, from 14N to 20N. The GFS model for 500 mb shows broad cyclonic wind flow in Central America, near Honduras and Nicaragua. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong covers the area that is from 12N to 17N between 77W and the coast of Central America. The monsoon trough is along 09N/11N, from 73W in Colombia beyond Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 13N southward from 70W westward, in the waters of the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. The current 66W/67W tropical wave, that is to the south of Puerto Rico, will reach the Mona Passage on Friday, and the Windward Passage on Saturday. It is possible that a broad area of low pressure may form by early next week, in the SW Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of the system will be possible thereafter, while it moves slowly northwestward. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The GFS model for 500 mb and for 700 mb shows a shortwave trough that is moving through the area of coastal waters and offshore waters of NE Florida. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 25N to 30N between 76W and the coast of Florida. A surface trough is along 53W/54W, from 26N northward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 22N northward between 48W and 61W. Some gradual tropical or subtropical development of this system is possible, through the middle of next week. This area of broad low pressure is forecast to meander in the central Atlantic Ocean well to the southeast of Bermuda. The chance of formation into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is low. Please, read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2, for more details. A second surface trough is along 25N41W 29N40W 33N42W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 180 nm to the east and northeast of the second surface trough. A cold front will move off the SE coast of the U.S.A. on Friday evening. The front will extend from 31N69W to the Florida Keys on Saturday evening, and then stall and dissipate on Sunday. Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas are expected to the north of the front during this weekend. A broad non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form, during the next couple of days, several hundred miles to the east-southeast of Bermuda. The pressure gradient between the low center and high pressure to the north will bring an increase in winds and seas to the NE waters, by Sunday evening. $$ mt