000 AXNT20 KNHC 152313 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Oct 15 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 28W/29W from 18N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 180 nm of the wave axis from 08N-10.5N. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W from 14N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Isolated showers are within 180 nm of the wave axis north of 08N. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W from 19N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is E of the wave axis over the Lesser Antilles from 13N-16.5N between 59W-63W. A Gulf of Mexico tropical wave is over the Bay of Campeche along 94W from 21N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No shower activity is occurring with the wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 08N22W to 07N29W to 05N32W. The ITCZ extends from 05N32W to 05N39W to 07N44W to 10N46W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface pressure pattern prevails across the region. A broad ridge extends southwestward from the Carolinas to the north-central Gulf of Mexico to near Veracruz Mexico. The tail end of a dissipating stationary front over the Florida Straits is producing scattered showers. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf late tonight into Fri and extend from near Tampa Bay, Florida to Tampico Mexico Fri evening, then stall and dissipate over the SE Gulf through Sun. Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas will follow the front through Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate showers and tstorms are seen in the western Caribbean from 12N-16N between 77.5W and Nicaragua. This convection is also occurring over eastern Honduras, much of Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica. The active tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean will reach the Mona Passage on Fri. Locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico through the next day or two. The tropical wave will reach the Windward Passage on Sat. Winds will increase in the south-central Caribbean tonight as high pressure builds N of the area. A broad area of low pressure could form by early next week over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of the system will be possible thereafter while it moves slowly northwestward. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A dissipating stationary front extends from 31N63W to 26N68W to the Straits of Florida. Scattered moderate showers extend over the northwest Bahamas and Florida Straits. A surface trough extends along 54W from 27N northward. An upper-level trough is over the same area. Scattered showers are from 23N-32N between 50W-56W. Another trough is from 32N41W to 26N39W. Scattered moderate convection is within 240 nm E of the trough. A 1016 mb low is over the E Atlantic near 32N27W. A cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast Fri evening, extend from 31N69W to the Florida Keys Sat evening, then stall and dissipate on Sun. Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas are expected north of the front this weekend. A broad non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form over the next couple of days several hundred nm east-southeast of Bermuda. The pressure gradient between the low center and high pressure to the north will bring an increase in winds and seas across the waters north of 25N between 50W-70W on Sun, spreading southward and westward to north of 23N between 50W-75W on Mon. $$ Hagen