000 AXNT20 KNHC 151715 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Oct 15 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 27W/28W, from 18N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is within 240 nm of the wave axis. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 53W, from 15N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Isolated showers are within 180 nm of the wave axis. A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean Sea along 63W, from 20N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Isolated moderate convection is E of the wave axis from 12N-17N between 54W-62W. A Gulf of Mexico tropical wave is over the Bay of Campeche, from 21N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Isolated showers are within 90 nm of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 07N21W to 06N32W. The ITCZ extends from 06N32W to 08N46W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface pressure pattern prevails across the region. A broad ridge extends southwestward from the Carolinas to the coast of Mexico near 20N. The tail-end of a stationary front is over the Straits of Florida from 24N80W to 23N83W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf late tonight into Fri and extend from near Tampa Bay, Florida to Tampico Mexico Fri evening, then stall and dissipate over the SE Gulf through Sun. Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas will follow the front through Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... Isolated moderate convection is over the Yucatan Channel from 20N-23N between 84W-86W. The monsoon trough is along 10N, from 73W in Colombia across Costa Rica into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Isolated moderate convection is from 08N to 17N between 73W and 84W. An active tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis along 63W. This system could produce locally heavy rainfall across portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the next few days. The wave will reach the Mona Passage on Fri. Winds will increase in the south-central Caribbean tonight as high pressure builds N of the area. A broad area of low pressure could form by early next week over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak stationary front extends from 31N64W to 25N70W to the Straits of Florida near 24N80W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. The tail-end of a prefrontal trough extends from 31N55W to 27N54W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the trough. The tail-end of another trough is over the central Atlantic from 31N41W to 25N42W. Scattered moderate convection is within 240 nm E of the trough. A 1016 mb low is over the E Atlantic near 32N28W. A cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast Fri night, extend from 31N69W to the Florida Keys Sat evening, then stall and dissipate on Sun. Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas are expected north of the front this weekend. A broad non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form over the weekend several hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda. The pressure gradient between the low center and high pressure to the north will bring an increase in winds and seas across the NE waters by Sun evening. $$ Formosa