000 AXNT20 KNHC 151030 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Oct 15 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 26W, from 18N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 9N between 23W and 30W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W, from 15N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Isolated showers are evident near the wave axis. A tropical wave entering the Caribbean Sea, is along 62W, from 20N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Widely scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted E of the wave from 12N to 18N between 53W and 60W. The wave may produce locally heavy rainfall across portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the next few days. A Gulf of Mexico tropical wave is entering the Bay of Campeche, from 22N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Isolated showers are evident near the wave axis and over the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in southern Mexico. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 12N16W to 09N19W to 06N25W. the ITCZ is from 04N28W to 05N40W. Isolated moderate showers are within 90 nm of the monsoon trough and ITCZ axis. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface pressure pattern prevails across the region. A broad ridge extends southwestward from the Carolinas to the coast of Mexico near 20N. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf on Friday, extend from the Florida Big Bend to near Tampico Mexico Fri evening, then stall and dissipate over the SE Gulf through Sun. Fresh NE winds are expected north of the front Fri and Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad east-west upper level trough extends across the western Caribbean Sea from Cuba and Hispaniola to Central America. Scattered moderate convection is occuring from 12N to 17N between 73W and 89W. A tropical wave along 62W may produce locally heavy rainfall across portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the next few days. The monsoon trough is along 10N, from 73W in Colombia across Costa Rica into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Scattered moderate convection is occuring from 12N to 17N between 73W and 89W. Widespread showers associated with the tropical wave 62W will move into the NE Caribbean today and reach the Mona Passage Fri. Winds will increase in the south-central Caribbean tonight as high pressure builds north of the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak cold front extends from 32N65W to 26N70W, and across the central Bahamas to Cuba near 23N79W. Isolated showers are evident near the frontal boundary. An upper level trough extends west-southwestward from 32N42W, across Hispaniola and Cuba, to Central America. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 23N northward between 51W and 60W. A low pressure center is located near 32N28W. Isolated showers are associated with the low. Some slow development is possible into early next week as the moves southwestward and then westward, passing about midway between Bermuda and the northern Lesser Antilles. This system has a low chance of development through the next 48 hours, and during the next 5 days. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook, at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml, for more details. A cold front will move off the SE coast of the U.S.A. on Friday night. The front will extend from 31N69W to the Florida Keys on Saturday evening, then stall and dissipate through Sunday. Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas are expected north of the front this weekend. A broad low pressure area will move westward to near 60W on Mon. $$ Mundell