000 AXNT20 KNHC 142319 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Oct 14 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 24W, from 18N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is from 14N-17N between 22W-26W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 49W, from 15N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Isolated moderate convection is from 09N-13N between 39W-48W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 59W, from 20N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. A 1009 mb low is along the wave axis near near 15N. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 13N-17N between 53W-60W. Strong upper-level winds are expected to inhibit significant development while the system moves west-northwestward over the next couple of days. Regardless of development, the system could produce locally heavy rainfall across portions of the central and northern Lesser Antilles today, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday, and Hispaniola on Friday. Please, read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook, at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml, for more details. A W Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 88W, from Yucatan southward, moving W around 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is from 16N-19N between 84W-88W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through Senegal, near 14N16W, to 05N33W. The ITCZ extends from 05N33W to 09N48W, with a break for the tropical wave near 49W, then resumes at 08N51W to the coast of Guyana near 06N57W. Aside from the convection noted with the wave near 49W, no deep convection is observed with the monsoon trough/ITCZ this evening. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche from 21N95W to 16N94W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the trough axis. The remainder of the Gulf is under surface ridging with mostly fair weather. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf on Fri, extend from the Florida Big Bend to near Tampico, Mexico Fri evening, then stall and weaken over the SE Gulf by Sat night. Fresh NE winds are expected north of the front Fri and Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is over the W Caribbean and another wave is approaching the E Caribbean. A surface trough is over the central Caribbean from 18N74W to 10N76W. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N-14N between 73W-80W. This convection is also being enhanced by upper level diffluence. A tropical wave will move through the Lesser Antilles later today and tonight. Fresh winds and building seas will follow in behind the wave to the Leeward Islands tonight, then move into the NE Caribbean on Thu and reach the Mona Passage early Fri. Winds will increase to fresh in the south-central Caribbean Thu evening as high pressure builds north of the area. These winds will persist through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N68W 26N75W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the front. A surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 31N40W to 24N44W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the trough. A 1016 mb low is over the E Atlantic near 33N28W. A cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast Fri night, and extend from 31N69W to the Florida Keys Sat evening, where it will stall and dissipate through Sunday. Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas are expected north of the front this weekend. $$ Landsea